INSANITY!

I don’t get it. I just…I really don’t get it. How do Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan sit down for dinner, begin discussing the Cardinals’ pitching situation, and conclude that Adam Wainwright can best help the Cardinals by pitching out of the ‘pen? It’s times like this that I desperately wish I could somehow email the Cardinals’ dugout and lay the e-smack down on their coaches. What are they thinking?!?!

In a previous post ( http://cardsnstuff.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/close-but-no-closer/ ), I addressed the Waino in the closer role discussion like this:

You don’t take an ace quality pitcher and limit his innings. What would you think if the Cubs suddenly moved Rich Harden to the closer role? Or the Brewers suddenly yanked Sheets out of the rotation and inserted him into the ninth inning? I’ll tell you what my reaction would be…Whoo Hoo! The fewer innings I have to face those guys, the better…and if they are the closer, a lead by my team means I don’t have to face them at all. The same is true of Wainwright. You want to make Brewers and Cubs fans happy? Move Waino to the closer role.

Now, the discussion has “popped” up again - Waino to the ‘pen.

Let’s think about this…the Cardinals have a 2-game series coming up next week against the Brewers. In that series, they have a realistic chance of throwing Carp and Waino at them back-to-back to possibly put us in a virtual tie for the Wild Card, if not better. Instead, Duncan says it’s “unlikely” that the two co-aces will co-exist in the rotation in the foreseeable future. If Carp is healthy and appears ready to go, Waino is likely scheduled to appear in the ‘pen. If not, Carp is out and Waino is in the rotation.

This is absolutely ridiculous. It’s as close as it comes to baseball insanity.

Let me tell you what’s going to happen. Carp is going to be healthy after his side session this week. TLR and Dunc will insert him into the rotation schedule for the first game against the Brewers. Then, someone else will pitch the second game - Joel? Wellemeyer? Whoever it is, they won’t be as good as Wainwright, and the Brewers lineup, after being frustrated by Carp all night long the day before, will tee off against our starting pitcher in the early innings of the second game. It will be four or five to nothing in the third or fourth inning…and when the Brewers leave town, they’ll load our playoff hopes onto their Milwaukee-bound greyhound and carry them right out of St. Louis. And Wainwright will be sitting in the ‘pen, having never even glimpsed the mound for lack of a save situation, wondering why his manager kept his best bullet in his pocket when the Cardinals were clearly in a life or death situation.

Absurd.

A fan on the Post-Dispatch forum was praising the bullpen for their recent improvement. Apparently, this fan was praising Mo for not getting bullpen help at the deadline. Sure, Mo did the right thing, but not because this ‘pen didn’t need the help - because it did - but simply because the price was too high…by far (K-Mac, Garcia, Bryan Anderson, plus 1 for Fuentes? I think not…). So, if this ‘pen didn’t improve through trade, and they didn’t improve because they didn’t need the help in the first place, why did they improve?

Because of the starting pitchers.

Our rotation has finally been consistently going longer than 5 innings for a comparatively long stretch of time. And, lo’ and behold, our bullpen has improved. Wow. Imagine that…starting pitchers working deep in games actually improves the bullpen. Who would’ve ever “thunk” it? This is not a new concept, people. This is why we need Wainwright AND Carp in the rotation.

I know, I know…you’re reading this thinking, “They aren’t ready to go that deep in games, yet!” First of all, they’re more ready than we think…considering the type of pitchers they are in the first place (low-count, ground ball, efficient starters). Carp and Waino could do more with 70 pitches than most MLB pitchers can do with 100. But, you do have a point…they aren’t fully conditioned to pitch 7 strong innings…yet. Of course, Wainwright would get a start against Atlanta before the Brewers series to build some stamina, but that’s just one game.

So, why am I still implying they could help the ‘pen if their stamina isn’t 100%? Because they battle. Because they refuse to break. When Joel and Lohse are pitching in the seventh in a one run game with runners at first and second with one out, chances are, they’re going to score. But with Adam and Carp…those guys can and will bear down and get out of the inning. Why is that important? Because just having them in the game, in the same situation as the other starters, means you get to save at least one and possibly two relievers out of the ‘pen each time they start a game. With Lohse and Joel, Tony’s going to have to go to Springer or some combination of Villone/Garcia and a righty-to-be-named-later. He’s going to have to stretch McClellan and Perez or both because he needs the big outs. And all that mix and match relief pitching depletes the ‘pen and makes us vulnerable for subsequent games.

I’ll put it this way…with ace quality pitching on the mound, your bullpen is a luxury…a fall-back plan in case things don’t…well…go as planned. Sure, you usually (and will in their case) have to use them, but you don’t have to use them near as much. With the other 3 or 4 starters in our rotation, however…the bullpen IS the plan. You enter the game knowing your ‘pen is going to be in the game by, at best, the seventh inning. And, because the run differential is most likely going to be smaller with a middle or back end of the rotation starter, you’re going to have to use more bullpen pitchers to get the same number of outs if they come in to back up Joel or Lohse than if they came in to back up Waino and/or Carp. Why? Because your margin for error is much smaller with the other guys. You can’t afford to let Villone face a lefty, a righty, and a lefty in the seventh inning of a one run game…you’ve got to bring in Springer or K-Mac. But if those guys are backing up Waino/Carp, then the run differential may look more like 2 or 3 or even 4 runs…and then, all of a sudden, you’ve got some options to play with…and maybe Villone goes a batter or two longer…or he never comes in the game at all because K-Mac is able to handle it.

Look…the bottom line is this…the Cards are a better team with Wainwright AND Carpenter in the rotation…Period. I don’t care what you throw back at me…that’s just simple, common sense truth. And TLR and Dunc have got to get over their “I can’t sleep with this many rookies in the ‘pen” mentality and realize that our playoff hopes (both making it and winning once we get there) are much better when our two co-aces are actually allowed to be aces in the rotation.

Period.

Bird Watching: Gut Check…

Last night was just flat out depressing. When I went to bed, the Cardinals had just lost to the Cubs 6 - 2 due to sloppy play that included an unnecessary error by Ludwick in right and a “what the hell happened” error by Kennedy at second. Carp left the game with the trainer, TLR vented his frustration about Carp’s injury by yanking Kennedy from the game (immediately after his error), and the ESPN Bottomline continued to scroll the fact that the Brewers had won in walk-off fashion to pull yet another game ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race. Could the night get any worse?

You know what? It turns out…No. For the first time in a long time, it seems like we caught a break.

When I woke up this morning and sat down to read the inevitable news of Carp’s deactivation for the remainder of the season, I was shocked to hear it may be A-okay after all. Turns out Carp’s triceps were barking and not his shoulder or his elbow. Okay, I know they reported that last night…but seriously…considering the Cardinals’ medical staff, who really bought into that? According to the most recent reports, Carp will go forward with his normal schedule and throw a bullpen session Tuesday.

Whew. All things considered, that’s the best news I’ve heard all season. And it’s consistent. Listen, we’ve continuously heard that coming back from Tommy John Surgery is not an exact science. Pitchers everywhere will tell you any number of nagging aches and pains will pop up during your comeback. Why? I don’t really know, but I would guess it’s because you haven’t pitched competitively for over a year. Your body doesn’t just bounce back from that kind of layoff, even if you have been building arm strength. Your muscles are unused to the workload…not just the surgically repaired areas, but the entire body. Carp could just as easily have developed back pain from lack of pitching as he could have triceps pain. It’s just part of the rebuilding process. Thankfully, Carp was smart enough to call Yadi out as soon as it appeared he could do some damage. Had he not done that, the muscle could have gotten worse and torn something. Yep, I think we caught a break.

And then my depression turned to a tiny glimmer - a spark if you will - of hope for the season. What are we really looking at here? I know, I know…we’re 3 games behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race with less than 2 months to go. But what does that really mean? Well, let’s find out. I’ve taken the liberty of summarizing the rest of the season in my own way. Let’s see how it unfolds.

Teams the Cards HAVE to Play:  Marlins (7 games), Diamond Backs (7 games), Cubs (6 games), and Brewers (2 games).

Teams the Cards GET to Play:  Reds (9 games), Pirates (5 games), Braves (3 games), and Astros (3 games).

Teams the Brewers HAVE to Play:  Cubs (6 games), Dodgers (3 games), Mets (3 games), Phillies (4 games), and Cardinals (2 games).

Teams the Brewers GET to Play:  Reds (6 games), Pirates (9 games), Astros (3 games), Nationals (1 game), and Padres (7 games).

Okay, okay…so…what does all that mean? Well, it means this: The Cardinals play 22 games against winning teams/contenders and 20 games against losing teams. The Brewers play 18 games against winning teams/contenders and 26 games against losing teams. Ugh…doesn’t sound so good from that perspective, does it? But let’s get into it further.

The Cardinals play 20 games at home and 22 games away. Of course, that doesn’t really matter much because the Cards’ home record of 33 - 28 and away record of 32 - 27 are virtually identical. The Brewers play 23 games at home and 21 games away. That may be a factor because the Brew Crew has a 35 - 23 record at home and a 32 - 28 record away. Clearly, the Brewers are a bit better at home (5 more losses and 3 less wins on the road)…meaning they could easily play just .500 ball or a bit worse over the rest of the season (from a home/away perspective). Why is that important? Because it’s one more reason why the Brewers are not likely to run away with the Wild Card. It makes them vulnerable.

Now, let’s get into a few pieces of information that may actually matter.

Days off - The Cards get 7 off while the Brewers get 5 off. This essentially means they play 2 more games than we do. On one hand, that gives the Brewers two more games to pull away from the Cards (effectively equalling 1 game difference if they win both). But, the more likely scenario is a split which is a wash OR dropping both of them (1 game in our favor). However, considering the grind of August/September baseball, I’m betting the biggest impact will be fatigue, especially considering the way the Brewers are riding their co-aces (Sheets and CC). They could easily lose both games AND have a carry-over affect that causes them to drop a couple more from burn-out. Remember our grueling schedule without a day off last year? It’s not quite as bad for the Brewers, but clearly fewer days off affect a team.

Key Series - Both teams have proven they cannot consistently beat the Cubs…but the Cards have come closer to it than the Brew Crew. With both teams playing the Cubs 6 games each, I could easily see the Cards coming out of their small bears stretch 1 game better than the Brewers. But, in all reality, the Cubs are no longer the keystone team to beat for these teams. The Brewers big series? The Mets and Phillies. CC is the Brewers’ big horse, and their X-factor. But he’s a lefty…and the Phillies have been killing left-handed pitching all season. The Mets, on the other hand, are chasing the Brewers and the Cards for the Wild Card…and they possess one of the only pitchers in the league that could actually shut down the Brewers’ lineup…Johan Santana. On the flip side, the Cardinals’ key series has got to be the Florida Marlins. We face them a total of 7 games, and this team is for real. They are also chasing the Brew Crew and Cards for a shot at the Wild Card. We have to put them away early (starts today) and move on. A series win here could drop them far enough back to put them out of our concerns and boost this club mentally. And, guess what…Carp and Waino weren’t scheduled to face this team this week anyway.

Health - This is a simple one. The Cards are trending upward (hopefully) while the Brewers are trending downward. Ryan Braun’s back is acting up (he’ll miss at least one game tonight) and the Brewers are riding CC and Sheets all the way to the promise land. It wouldn’t surprise me if CC’s arm actually fell off while on the mound. And Sheets is hit or miss half the time anyway. The Cardinals on the other hand…assuming Carp really will be okay, they get him back and getting stronger every day. Waino is coming back in a week. And Ankiel will be back this week, if not today. Hell, we even get Barton back this week. Long story short, our pitchers are more rested and our outfield is healthy. And with Phelps, Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and Stavinoha…we HAVE to have the edge on September call-ups…especially considering all but Rasmus have MLB experience this season.

Bottomline:  Okay, maybe all that is a bit too much to make sense of…so let me bottom line it for you. How can the Cards get to the post season? Well, it doesn’t have to be by heroic effort at all. The simplest method means four things need to happen.

1.  The Cards need to play well against Florida (boost to us and knocks them out).
2.  The Brewers need to drop the 2 extra games they will play.
3.  The Cards need to beat the Brewers in Busch both games this month.
4.  If the above 3 items happen, all we need to do is win 1 more of the remaining games than they do.

All of the above is entirely possible (especially the win for win/loss for loss plus 1 win scenario - seems like we’ve been keeping pace all season).  Making the post season will not take a heroic effort…we just need to calm down and play consistently. We don’t need to win every game, but we do have to settle down and play well. We can do that…but we’ve got to pull together now and start out strong against the Marlins. Drop this series with the Brewers facing sub-par teams this week, and we could easily end the season right here.

Have faith…and GO CARDS!!!

BIRD SEEDS

Was Carp Rushed Back?  With Carp’s injury last night, I’m sure it took all of ten seconds for TLR bashers to jump all over the organization and scream that they had rushed him back and re-injured his arm. But let’s be real here. Yesterday’s start was Carp’s fifth (counting his rehab starts) since coming back. The BEST case scenario regarding his rehab assignment was 4 starts…meaning his first MLB start would have been last night. And his previous 2 MLB starts? He threw far fewer pitches…FAR fewer…than he would have in a minor league rehab assignment in both starts. So don’t start yelling that more rehab starts could have helped avoid the triceps issue. It wasn’t an issue with his elbow or his shoulder…it’s the normal aches and pains expected with a comeback after a layoff of this long. The only way to avoid issues like that would be to shut him down completely and let him start out with a normal Spring Training next year…and I didn’t see anyone advocating that. Carp was handled correctly and with kid gloves - regardless of how this turns out.

Waino as Closer?  Bullshit. Last night’s start by Carp, and the subsequent meltdown of the bullpen in a close, critical game, further underscores the need to bring Adam back as a starter. Look…think of it this way…if Perez can do the job, Waino won’t be needed in the bullpen…right? But the problem we’ve been having is being in actual save situations late in the game so Perez CAN prove himself. Think about that for a moment. Waino wouldn’t have made an impact in ANY of the recent games…but he could have made an impact as a starter going 7 innings. And the only way to get him to the 7 inning strength level is to abort the closer rehab pitch count NOW and get him going for the rotation. It needs to happen people. If Waino is the closer, this team has no shot. If we wait until Carp has another muscle issue and is shut down, Waino won’t have time to rebuild his arm enough to impact this team.

Adam Kennedy’s Mental State  After being yanked by TLR last night, Adam looked devastated. Did TLR make the wrong decision? Did he mentally destroy his best defensive option at second base? Not to mention the way Adam has been hitting recently. It’s no secret Adam and TLR have had their issues over his playing time, but last night did not help. Bottom line - this team is better with a hot hitting Kennedy at second base. Hopefully, TLR’s knee-jerk reaction last night didn’t permanently damage the relationship between the manager and player to the point where it becomes toxic in the club house.

B.S. = B.S.  Anyone notice the initials of BIRD SEEDS are B.S.? I didn’t intend it that way, but it strikes me as appropriate. My rants and ravings regarding Cardinals matters are, more often than not, my own polished form of bullshit. Ah well…seems to be working for me, so why stop now?

Jim Edmonds says “Thank You” for standing ovation from Cards fans

Jim Edmonds finally said “thank you” to Cardinals fans for giving him a respectful standing ovation upon his return to Busch Stadium back in July. From Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post Dispatch:

When FSN’s Brent Stover and Claiborne (KTRS) approached Edmonds after the game for a quickie on-field interview that has become standard procedure for MLB rights holders, Edmonds blew them off and said:

“I’m (censored) done with St. Louis TV and radio and I’m (censored) done with the Cardinals.”

And then he walked into the Cubs dugout.

Later in the game, Edmonds homered twice off of Cards pitching - the only two runs for the Cubs until the 11th when the small bears finally won it - and made one of his spectacular diving grabs he’s become famous for in center field. After the first homer, Edmonds performed a dramatic and pointed flip of his bat directly towards the Cardinals dugout. After the second, a less dramatic but no less pointed flip of the bat in the same direction. Cubs fans promptly drooled over Jimmy and begged him for a curtain call - to which he more than graciously responded by stepping out of the dugout and waiving his little cap.

Can we finally let Jim Edmonds go? Can the Jimmy Baseball/Ballgame love-fest finally end?

Edmonds has moved on - why can’t we? He doesn’t want to be a Cardinal. He doesn’t want to be remembered as a Cardinal. He doesn’t want to be treated as a Cardinal. But he sure as hell wants you to keep frequenting his restaurant. He sure as hell wants you to keep fawning all over him like the second coming of Stan “The Man” Musial.

Edmonds makes some comments in Chicago, Tony gets upset, and the St. Louis media (and fans) call La Russa vindictive, stubborn, ridiculous, etc. Tony makes some comments in return, Edmonds gets upset, and the St. Louis media (and fans) scream, “Not us, Jimmy! Tony doesn’t speak for us!” The media accuses Tony of stoking the fire that burned hot enough already. But Jimmy…oh, no…he’s just trying to distance himself from the rival of his current team. He’s just trying to endear himself to the doubting Cubs fans and Chicago media. Totally understandable that Jimmy Baseball…stand up guy, he is…

Bullshit.

I love Jim Edmonds as much as the next Cardinals fan - but let’s not act like toddlers here…Jim Edmonds is a Cub, and he’s absolutely acting like one. Let it go, fans…the man only wants to be associated with the Cardinals when it benefits him…such as receiving cheers and a standing ovation in Busch instead of boos and angry chants of “Jimmy Go Home! Jimmy Go Home!” or “Traaaaitor…Traaaaitor…”

Grow up, fans…move on…and the next time you see Jim Edmonds, try not to wet your pants with glee…after all, he’s “(censored) done with” you. In the immortal words of Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon, “Hate ‘im back. Works for me.”