Don’t Look Behind the Curtain!

If you’re not taking advantage of the “level the playing field” nature of Twitter…you’re missing out. This fast-rising online tool brings celebrities, bloggers, athletes, and even fans together in one massive chat room to “tweet” ’til they just can’t “tweet” no more. Sure, sometimes you get the irritating inspirational messages at random by one-time celebrities like Kirstie Alley (good lord, woman…please STOP being relevant), but for the most part, the “pointless babble” (as USA Today called it) on Twitter is full of casual interaction with otherwise out-of-reach personalities (see, Matthew Leach, Derrick Goold, and even the ever-cynical Joe Strauss – love ya’, Joe!). 

But every once in a while…you get wrangled into a twee-bate (that’s Debate on Twitter for the un-twitterized among you).

Perhaps a bit more information is necessary. On Twitter, a user is limited to statements and/or replies of 140 characters or less (known as “updates”). Imagine your frustration with such a limitation as you try to single-handedly turn back the tide of Statistical Snobbery in Major League Baseball (heroism, it appears, is severely under-appreciated). In short, it just don’t work.  On to the blogs!

This morning, I found myself in a somewhat spirited twee-bate with @fungoes (that’s a user handle on Twitter, kids) about the importance of OBP (on-base percentage) vs. BA (batting average). If you read his account HERE (I am, sadly, identified as “among others”…oh, the shame), you’ll have a head start. In fact, I would go so far as to say it is necessary before continuing with this post…seeing as this post is somewhat of a reply to his post. Go ahead…read it.

Done? Okay…let’s continue.

Let me start by saying I love OBP. I really do. It’s an outstanding advancement in statistical analysis for baseball (or rather, it’s recent applications are advancements). I do not, however, believe it is a replacement for the traditional (Fungoes used “antiquated”) stats. Instead, OBP adds to the 100 plus year old knowledge bank of baseball statistics. Make no mistake…it adds to it in a major way…but it is not the beginning and end all in baseball statistics. It is a way for us to see a more-detailed image of a baseball player. It is a significant component in attempting to predict a baseball player’s success and a team’s win percentage and run totals.

But it is not the Holy Grail of baseball.

Okay…enough about that…let’s get onto what really matters: Replying to Fungoes’ post. On his blog, Fungoes puts forth two separate fantasy teams made up of 9 players each. On one team, the top-ranked players by BA. On the other, the top-ranked players by OBP. He then plugs the statistics of each player into a “lineup analysis tool” apparently supported by a fantasy baseball site. In the end, his conclusion is that the OBP team scores just over half a run (.533) more than the BA team. Then, he continues by predicting the OBP team would win, approximately, 8.6 more games than the BA team.

Okay…all well and good. I was actually getting ready to accept the conclusion and move on…but wait! What if we look behind the curtain? What if we question a bit of the data we’re being fed? Hmmmm…well, then…we notice a few problems with the analysis. So…after that incredibly long-winded introduction, I present 3 primary flaws with Fungoes’ post and results. Keep in mind, I’m not saying Fungoes is not right…but I am saying this calculation and the resulting conclusions are more than flawed.

1. Unrealistic Lineup Composition for Both Teams

This is really a minor problem as it doesn’t quite taint the results as much as it simply calls for more realistic test subjects. It seems clear that Fungoes gave very little (if any) thought to the positions his team members would play in a real setting. For example, his OBP team alone has 5 first basemen (out of 9 players) and no player capable of playing center field. At this rate, the runs this team would give up in the field may well be over its projected offensive production of 7.553 runs per game! I jest…but my point is this…if you’re going to use OBP to construct a team, you can’t use it in a vacuum. This is one of the dangers I see with many baseball statisticians crying “Savior!” at the so-called “advanced” or “sophisticated” stats. They tend to see things in a vacuum. In reality, it just doesn’t work that way. OBP is helpful in constructing a lineup…but it is by far absolutely NOT the only thing to consider. RBIs, Slugging Percentage (SLG), Defensive ability, etc. are all important. If we continue to try and simplify baseball into 1 singular “keystone” stat, we take away much of what I love about this game – its multi-faceted nature. Okay…enough about that…let’s move on.

2. Wrong Tool for the Job

In Fungoes’ blog post, he is the picture of transparency! For each team, he lists the lineup along with the “AVG.” or “OBP” he used – well…sort of. You see, the “lineup analysis tool” Fungoes used…it kind of works like this (in @fungoes words): “The lineup tool uses whatever OBP and SLG values the user types in and generates run totals based on how much each impacts runs.”

“Sooo…you used a tool that doesn’t even use BA as a sep. stat to compare a BA vs. OBP team? tool itself leans towards OBP over BA?” I asked (innocently, of course).

“It doesn’t ‘lean towards OBP’; it uses OBP and SLG to calculate runs,” he responded.

Okay…anyone else see the problem here? We’re supposed to be testing BA vs. OBP to see which team scores more runs…and yet, the tool used to calculate runs only uses OBP…not BA. I call foul!!! Alright, kids…if you’re going to see which stat has a greater impact on runs scored, doesn’t it make sense to actually USE the stats you’re testing? I would think so. Here’s the basic problem…the tool itself is built on the premise that OBP and SLG impact runs…but BA does not (otherwise it would be included in the calculations). If this doesn’t make sense at this point, I can’t help you. Let’s move on…

3. Where Did SLG Go?

Oh…what? What’s that you say? Where did the SLG go? ……..HEY! You’re right! When I go to Fungoes’ blog post, I don’t see the SLG numbers he entered. Well…let’s just check that out using the links he provided us. Ah…there they are…I think…um…hey…wait a minute. Alright, you gotta’ see this:

BA Team Stats:

 

 OBP Team Stats:

Now, I’m sure we all have horrible memories of our high school math classes, so let me do the hard work for you. Okay…here we go:

BA Team Avg. SLG:   .534
OBP Team Avg. SLG:  .547

I’m getting tired, so I’ll just wrap this up for you. When entering his stats, Fungoes used SLG percentage…but when he got his results, he automatically attributed the entirety of those results to higher OBPs when in fact, the OBP Team’s SLG percentage was higher on average than the BA Team’s. Now, this doesn’t account for the full difference between the teams – the flaw in the tool still gives the edge to the team with the higher OBP (flaw ONLY because it shouldn’t be used for a BA related comparison…it does what it is designed to do, however) - but it should at least be taken into account when presenting the results.

Alright…I’m getting the “wrap-it-up” signal from my wife, so let me close with two points. First, Fungoes does a great job, and I value his insight, but the post about this particular topic on his site is tainted by the assumption that OBP “trumps” BA and therefore is a poor evaluation of whether it does in fact trump BA. It’s just bad statistical analysis to use a tool that leans so heavily in favor of one outcome. If you use a tool that uses OBP but not BA, OF COURSE the team with the higher OBP numbers is going to score more runs. I could have saved him a whole lot of time on that one.

Secondly…I want to make this clear…I am a big fan of OBP. At no time did I argue that BA “trumps” OBP…or anything even close. Instead, my argument has always been simply this: OBP, like any statistic, gives us a more detailed, fuller picture of a player when used in conjunction with other statistics (traditional and modern). It does not, however, replace traditional stats. You cannot build a team of only OBP guys and then match up against a team that takes a more balanced approach. Okay…the last part of this point is this: My contention was not even about BA alone…it was about all stats other than OBP. RBIs, RISP, BA, SLG, etc. I like them all when constructing a team. I’m not going to look at just BA or just OBP. I want a team of guys who can get on base and guys who can bring them in.

Okay, okay…enough of that…I have to get home for dinner. You all have a wonderful night…and GO CARDS!!!

Albert Pujols and a Fanbase in Fear…

It seems Cardinals Nation is “a Twitter” with rabid and frantic pleas to sign Albert Pujols as soon as – and “as long as” – possible. I won’t bother trying to catch you up on all the details (but visit the sites/links at the end of this post for all you can stomach), but it essentially comes down to this:  If Albert is not convinced the Cardinals front office/ownership is committed to winning as much as he is…he walks. At least, that seems to be the general consensus.

I agree.

So…this post is, quite simply, a list of the things I will burn in my schizophrenic rage when/if the news breaks that Albert Pujols has joined the ranks of another squad. Enjoy:

1. My “Lucky” Cardinals T-Shirt
I bought this raggedy shirt from Busch II “back in the day.” Somehow – don’t ask me how – I found myself at Busch Stadium without a traditional red shirt to wear before a game. So, I sauntered into the Team Store, found a simple yet sharp Cardinals shirt on the center rack, checked the price tag…and promptly bought the first shirt on the clearance rack that fit me instead. It was $16. The one I put back was $50…for a t-shirt, people. Anywho…it’s faded red with the single, solitary Cardinal sitting on a yellow bat smack-dab in the center. I like it…but it will burn.

2. My Scott Rolen Jersey
I have a confession to make. It’s my fault Scott Rolen left. No, really…it is. You see, I never buy team jerseys. They are WAY too expensive – especially when the player leaves within a season or two of your purchase and you have to do it all over again. I flat-out refuse to drop $175 on a shirt. No way. But one day, I got “lucky.” While wandering through Wal-Mart before class, I found a clearance rack of cheaply-designed Cardinals jerseys. They were solid red button-ups with a white “Cardinals” printed across the front and a blue stripe down each side. Pujols, Carpenter, and Rolen were left…at $15 each. I promptly grabbed Rolen’s (I’m not really a “pitcher” person…and everyone has Pujols, right?) and walked proudly out of the store (after paying of course). I wore it for 3 months before he was traded. Be thankful I did not buy Pujols’ jersey. Nevertheless, I like my Scott Rolen jersey. But it willburn. NOTE: I’m pretty sure I did the same thing to Steve Bono of the Chiefs “back in the day”…but don’t tell him.

3. My Colby Rasmus Bobblehead
One of the best things about having a minor league team within driving distance is the freebies. My wife and I are constantly checking the promotion nights at the Springfield Cardinals stadium (Hammond’s Field) and buying tickets accordingly. T-Shirt night? We’re there. Bobblehead night? Gotta’ have it. I mean, it’s a smorgasbord of free Cardinals merchandise! You don’t pass that up, man. Well…one night last season the team gave away Colby Rasmus bobbleheads. I told my wife, “I gotta’ have it!” So, we made the drive, got there early, stood in line…and got me my bobblehead! It was a great night. And I love my bobblehead. But it will burn.

4. All of My Beloved “Freebies” from the Springfield Cardinals
In one night – and one night only – my wife and I walked away from Hammond’s Field with a bobblehead, four Cardinals t-shirts (including 2 blue 1982 jersey replica t-shirts), two hats, and some kind of bracelet/ruler thingy we got for doing the milk-shake chuggin’ contest on top of the dugout in the first inning (I won, of course…whupped my trash-talkin’ wife’s butt!). All of it…and all of the other freebies I’ve collected…will burn.

There’s more that will burn, of course…I’ve been a Cardinals fan for quite a while and have plenty to choose from…but that’s all I’ll reveal for now. I will, however, tell you about a few items I will NOT be burning:  My Ozzie Smith autographed ball, Ozzie’s Topps rookie card, my Adam Wainwright autographed ball, and my full set of the 2006 World Series Championship DVDs. I’ll keep all of that stuff…because it is a reminder of when I loved and respected the St. Louis Cardinals.

But the other stuff…it will burn.

If Albert Pujols is not a Cardinal in 2012…I may stop watching baseball all together. In fact…I will. Honestly, how could it be any different? If this team does not do everything in their power to re-sign the game’s best player…especially one so beloved by the St. Louis fanbase…how could I – nay, ALL of us! – how could we NOT revolt against the man that orchestrated the downfall of the greatest baseball franchise on Earth…Mr. Bill DeWitt-Idiot?!?!

Okay…that’s enough. Hopefully the rain will hold off enough to get this game in tonight…and we’ll see if the team does ANYTHING to quell the fear running through Cardinals Nation over the next few weeks. In the meantime, here’s those links I promised you.

GO CARDS!

A great piece by Will Leitch of deadspin.com:
http://deadspin.com/5291272/how-the-cardinals-could-lose-albert-pujols

St. Louis Post-Dispatch writers weigh-in:
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/round-two/round-two/2009/06/will-albert-be-a-cardinal-in-2012/

Brian Burwell’s usual “you’re not helping at all, Brian” approach:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/bryanburwell/story/AC51EFAC911211D2862575D7000E773A?OpenDocument

And finally…the man who seems to have started it all…the internet “mad-bomber-what-bombs-at-midnight” when it comes to St. Louis Cardinals outrage…Mr. Bernie Miklasz’s plea to Cardinals’ ownership:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/berniemiklasz/story/DBD78F6E69FA9BAE862575D600116C98?OpenDocument

In the 7 Spot, Yadi the Body Steps Up…

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote a statistically well-researched piece (blog…column…article…? Idk.) about Yadier Molina’s recent struggles at the plate. It was well-written, insightful, and full of statistical evidence. You can find it somewhere at www.stltoday.com (I couldn’t find it quick enough, so you’re on your own). But ultimately, I think it missed the point. 

Bernie tends to focus quite a bit on pitch selection, location, and what a hitter does or does not do with said pitch in said location. That’s not Yadi’s problem. Yadi, the great catcher/player that he is, is a victim of Tony La Russa’s wishful thinking and lineup switching. Constantly being misplaced in the batting order has destroyed Molina’s stats and effectively neutralized one of our more consistent hitters in the bottom half of the order. Let me explain:

In a baseball lineup, hitters and batting positions have roles and a purpose. The leadoff guy gets on. The 2-hole (according to TLR) is a damage-potential hitter who knows what to do with improved pitch selection/location. The third spot is traditionally your best hitter/RBI guy – the one you want to build your lineup around and maximize his number of ABs (see Pujols). The 4 spot? Oh, come on…that’s the big bopper…the cleanup guy. In the 5 spot, a power-hitting RBI threat to pick up what the 3 and 4 guys have left behind. Six spot guys are what I call “mop-up” hitters. If, for some reason, the 3-5 hitters didn’t get it done…the 6 spot guy has a puncher’s chance of driving in a run. Finally, we’re left with the 7 through 9 spots. The 9 spot (excluding TLR) is reserved for the pitcher, but the 7 and 8 spots? They are reserved for what I call “complementary hitters.” 

A complementary hitter is a bat in the lineup that must hit but is not relied upon. The heavy lifting in the offense is performed by the 1 through 6 spots (and the 9 spot is a throw-away or sacrifice position). The 7 and 8 guys, however, are seen as a complement to whatever the rest of the offense is able to put together. If they hit, awesome. If they don’t, no big deal. They’re usually on the team for their defense – not their bat (see Cesar Izturis). Their best approach at the plate is to work ABs and try to get on base for the offense to turn over and drive them in. Their secondary concern – to get the pitcher to the plate so the next inning starts in the top of the order. 

Okay…you get the point. Comp hitters are not exactly thought of as run-producers. This is where Yadi comes in.

It’s hard to think of Yadier Molina as a complementary hitter based on the job description I’ve provided – but that’s exactly what he is for the Cardinals. He’s a catcher first – a hitter second. But when he does hit, he’s usually one of the hardest in the NL to strike out. He works at bats. And…furthermore…he hits for a respectable average. Throw that together and a manger may be tempted to bump his line-driving hitting catcher up in the order to get his bat involved in the RBI slugfest taking place in the 3 through 6 spots. For Yadi…such a move is offensive suicide.

Take a look at Yadi’s splits based on batting order over his career and during this (2009) season:

CAREER

4th Spot – 45 ABs  .178 BA
5th Spot – 78 ABs .256 BA
6th Spot – 453 ABs .269 BA
7th Spot – 718 ABs .283 BA
8th Spot – 596 ABs .242 BA

2009 SEASON

4th Spot – 16 ABs .063 BA
5th Spot – 39 ABs .282 BA
6th Spot – 106 ABs .255 BA
7th Spot –  29 ABs .379

Also worth noting, Yadi has 1 HR in only 29 ABs in the 7 spot compared to 3 HRs in 106 ABs in the 6 spot (1 HR in 29 ABs in 7 – 1 HR per 35.3 ABs in 6). Plus, in just 29 ABs – Yadi has 6 RBIs in the 7 spot compared to 9 in 106 ABs in the 6 spot. 

Look…enough…the problem is clear. The more pressure on Yadi – the more TLR expects out of Molina in the lineup – the less he produces. Maybe it’s the pitcher’s increased focus on Yadi in a higher batting position, maybe it’s Yadi trying to do too much…who knows? But whatever the reason, Yadier Molina NEEDS to hit in the 7 spot in the lineup. Hitting him anywhere else nearly neutralizes his bat and all but eliminates a valuable complementary hitter.

With all the databases and charts running around the Busch Stadium clubhouse and manager’s office these days…you would think someone would notice.

Ah well…hey…Carp vs. Lee tonight on ESPN…what a treat, eh?

GO CARDS!!!!