Don’t Look Behind the Curtain!

If you’re not taking advantage of the “level the playing field” nature of Twitter…you’re missing out. This fast-rising online tool brings celebrities, bloggers, athletes, and even fans together in one massive chat room to “tweet” ’til they just can’t “tweet” no more. Sure, sometimes you get the irritating inspirational messages at random by one-time celebrities like Kirstie Alley (good lord, woman…please STOP being relevant), but for the most part, the “pointless babble” (as USA Today called it) on Twitter is full of casual interaction with otherwise out-of-reach personalities (see, Matthew Leach, Derrick Goold, and even the ever-cynical Joe Strauss – love ya’, Joe!). 

But every once in a while…you get wrangled into a twee-bate (that’s Debate on Twitter for the un-twitterized among you).

Perhaps a bit more information is necessary. On Twitter, a user is limited to statements and/or replies of 140 characters or less (known as “updates”). Imagine your frustration with such a limitation as you try to single-handedly turn back the tide of Statistical Snobbery in Major League Baseball (heroism, it appears, is severely under-appreciated). In short, it just don’t work.  On to the blogs!

This morning, I found myself in a somewhat spirited twee-bate with @fungoes (that’s a user handle on Twitter, kids) about the importance of OBP (on-base percentage) vs. BA (batting average). If you read his account HERE (I am, sadly, identified as “among others”…oh, the shame), you’ll have a head start. In fact, I would go so far as to say it is necessary before continuing with this post…seeing as this post is somewhat of a reply to his post. Go ahead…read it.

Done? Okay…let’s continue.

Let me start by saying I love OBP. I really do. It’s an outstanding advancement in statistical analysis for baseball (or rather, it’s recent applications are advancements). I do not, however, believe it is a replacement for the traditional (Fungoes used “antiquated”) stats. Instead, OBP adds to the 100 plus year old knowledge bank of baseball statistics. Make no mistake…it adds to it in a major way…but it is not the beginning and end all in baseball statistics. It is a way for us to see a more-detailed image of a baseball player. It is a significant component in attempting to predict a baseball player’s success and a team’s win percentage and run totals.

But it is not the Holy Grail of baseball.

Okay…enough about that…let’s get onto what really matters: Replying to Fungoes’ post. On his blog, Fungoes puts forth two separate fantasy teams made up of 9 players each. On one team, the top-ranked players by BA. On the other, the top-ranked players by OBP. He then plugs the statistics of each player into a “lineup analysis tool” apparently supported by a fantasy baseball site. In the end, his conclusion is that the OBP team scores just over half a run (.533) more than the BA team. Then, he continues by predicting the OBP team would win, approximately, 8.6 more games than the BA team.

Okay…all well and good. I was actually getting ready to accept the conclusion and move on…but wait! What if we look behind the curtain? What if we question a bit of the data we’re being fed? Hmmmm…well, then…we notice a few problems with the analysis. So…after that incredibly long-winded introduction, I present 3 primary flaws with Fungoes’ post and results. Keep in mind, I’m not saying Fungoes is not right…but I am saying this calculation and the resulting conclusions are more than flawed.

1. Unrealistic Lineup Composition for Both Teams

This is really a minor problem as it doesn’t quite taint the results as much as it simply calls for more realistic test subjects. It seems clear that Fungoes gave very little (if any) thought to the positions his team members would play in a real setting. For example, his OBP team alone has 5 first basemen (out of 9 players) and no player capable of playing center field. At this rate, the runs this team would give up in the field may well be over its projected offensive production of 7.553 runs per game! I jest…but my point is this…if you’re going to use OBP to construct a team, you can’t use it in a vacuum. This is one of the dangers I see with many baseball statisticians crying “Savior!” at the so-called “advanced” or “sophisticated” stats. They tend to see things in a vacuum. In reality, it just doesn’t work that way. OBP is helpful in constructing a lineup…but it is by far absolutely NOT the only thing to consider. RBIs, Slugging Percentage (SLG), Defensive ability, etc. are all important. If we continue to try and simplify baseball into 1 singular “keystone” stat, we take away much of what I love about this game – its multi-faceted nature. Okay…enough about that…let’s move on.

2. Wrong Tool for the Job

In Fungoes’ blog post, he is the picture of transparency! For each team, he lists the lineup along with the “AVG.” or “OBP” he used – well…sort of. You see, the “lineup analysis tool” Fungoes used…it kind of works like this (in @fungoes words): “The lineup tool uses whatever OBP and SLG values the user types in and generates run totals based on how much each impacts runs.”

“Sooo…you used a tool that doesn’t even use BA as a sep. stat to compare a BA vs. OBP team? tool itself leans towards OBP over BA?” I asked (innocently, of course).

“It doesn’t ‘lean towards OBP’; it uses OBP and SLG to calculate runs,” he responded.

Okay…anyone else see the problem here? We’re supposed to be testing BA vs. OBP to see which team scores more runs…and yet, the tool used to calculate runs only uses OBP…not BA. I call foul!!! Alright, kids…if you’re going to see which stat has a greater impact on runs scored, doesn’t it make sense to actually USE the stats you’re testing? I would think so. Here’s the basic problem…the tool itself is built on the premise that OBP and SLG impact runs…but BA does not (otherwise it would be included in the calculations). If this doesn’t make sense at this point, I can’t help you. Let’s move on…

3. Where Did SLG Go?

Oh…what? What’s that you say? Where did the SLG go? ……..HEY! You’re right! When I go to Fungoes’ blog post, I don’t see the SLG numbers he entered. Well…let’s just check that out using the links he provided us. Ah…there they are…I think…um…hey…wait a minute. Alright, you gotta’ see this:

BA Team Stats:

 

 OBP Team Stats:

Now, I’m sure we all have horrible memories of our high school math classes, so let me do the hard work for you. Okay…here we go:

BA Team Avg. SLG:   .534
OBP Team Avg. SLG:  .547

I’m getting tired, so I’ll just wrap this up for you. When entering his stats, Fungoes used SLG percentage…but when he got his results, he automatically attributed the entirety of those results to higher OBPs when in fact, the OBP Team’s SLG percentage was higher on average than the BA Team’s. Now, this doesn’t account for the full difference between the teams – the flaw in the tool still gives the edge to the team with the higher OBP (flaw ONLY because it shouldn’t be used for a BA related comparison…it does what it is designed to do, however) - but it should at least be taken into account when presenting the results.

Alright…I’m getting the “wrap-it-up” signal from my wife, so let me close with two points. First, Fungoes does a great job, and I value his insight, but the post about this particular topic on his site is tainted by the assumption that OBP “trumps” BA and therefore is a poor evaluation of whether it does in fact trump BA. It’s just bad statistical analysis to use a tool that leans so heavily in favor of one outcome. If you use a tool that uses OBP but not BA, OF COURSE the team with the higher OBP numbers is going to score more runs. I could have saved him a whole lot of time on that one.

Secondly…I want to make this clear…I am a big fan of OBP. At no time did I argue that BA “trumps” OBP…or anything even close. Instead, my argument has always been simply this: OBP, like any statistic, gives us a more detailed, fuller picture of a player when used in conjunction with other statistics (traditional and modern). It does not, however, replace traditional stats. You cannot build a team of only OBP guys and then match up against a team that takes a more balanced approach. Okay…the last part of this point is this: My contention was not even about BA alone…it was about all stats other than OBP. RBIs, RISP, BA, SLG, etc. I like them all when constructing a team. I’m not going to look at just BA or just OBP. I want a team of guys who can get on base and guys who can bring them in.

Okay, okay…enough of that…I have to get home for dinner. You all have a wonderful night…and GO CARDS!!!

A Very Bored Cards Fan: An Exercise in Fiction…

Is there any better feeling in the morning than waking up after a 3-game sweep of the Cubs in Busch Stadium? I think not. Cardinals starting pitching has been nothing short of heroic the past 3 days (and the bullpen ain’t too shabby neither…). Despite the sum total of 8 runs scored in 3 games, the Big Birds found a way to stifle the Small Bears and run the season series to 6-3 Cards (I think…?).

The stunning lack of offensive production by the Cubs – in all honesty – seemed to dull the heightened sense of anxiety and excitement normally associated with a Cubs/Cards series in St. Louis. I found myself thinking back to Chris Carpenter starts of old…you know…the nine-inning lullabies The Ace regularly crafted against powerful NL lineups? The kinds of games that left the opposing hitters drifting back to their hotels with thoughts of curve-balls and ground-outs floating peacefully in their dazed little heads. Actually, whenever Carp pitches, I get the image of some twisted serial killer kneeling beside the bed of his latest victim, deceptively whispering assurances and quietly soothing away valid fears with sounds of “Shhhh…shhhh…” as the IV in their forearm silently drips gradual, deadly poison into their veins.

That was the scene at Busch Stadium over the past few days. One could almost feel Dave Duncan in the clubhouse, his aged and skinny frame leaning over the trainer’s table below - his “patient” wide-eyed and confused as he slipped into a deep, offensive coma.

“Shhhh…shhhh…”

Of course, there was the brief moment when Ryan Franklin kicked down the door, burst in the room, and slapped Dunc’s sleeping giant around with reckless abandon yelling, “Wake up! Wake up! Do you wanna’ die?! Wake up, you fool…and flee!” In truth, I thought Frank a traitor to our cause…the undercover cop at the end of the movie, secretly disguised as the killer’s loyal assistant, that suddenly reveals himself to save the day.

But…fortunately…it too was a cruel temptation for a doomed opponent. After waking his confused and alert prey, Ryan simply grinned and delivered the swift, violent death blow to the heart of Cubs fans everywhere.

Beautiful.

Tonight, the cross-state rivals come cruising into town for a weekend set. They too struggle with offensive production…but Duncan’s familiar and trustworthy weapons of old (Carp and Waino) will not see action against these Kansas City Royals. Instead, he’ll be left with the dull, rusty blade of the Todalion and the cursed, tragic story of the man named Lohse. Newly knighted Cardinal, Sir Joel Pineiro, stands ready to staunch the bleeding or deliver the killing blow (his role in the story as yet unknown) – but will his enemy be alert and ready for his multi-faceted barrage of sinkers, change-ups, and curves (Oh my!)?

This weekend series is shrouded in mystery and fueled by the fire of Missouri Summer days – but who will claim the coveted title of Missouri’s Best Baseball Team?

For Cardinals fans, both hope and despair too often sit together like old chums, engorging themselves with drink until the line between good and evil becomes blurred and worn with travel. Below, I’ve taken the liberty of transcribing what few drunken ramblings I could overhear while sitting within earshot of our confused friends.

Hope:  “Not to worry, my discouraging friend. This La Russa lad knows his game. His myriad of tantalizing lineup riddles will confuse and confound our unsuspecting quarry.”

Despair:  “No, no…it is precisely his fear of passive predictability that will doom this team. His players have no sense of themselves…no knowledge of their own identity. One day, this man is an infielder…the next, he roams the outfield – and rather dangerously I might add. It’s madness! How can a man succeed without first knowing himself?” (Despair is our resident philosopher, if you haven’t yet figured that out)

Hope:  “Ah, but now it is you who are in error! You overlook the very reason our beloved manager plays such a high-risk game of lineup roulette. His cleverness has revealed to him the most effective lineup on any given day to maximize offense and defense at the same time. It is not our place to question such divinely inspired pencil scratchings!”  (Hope tends to be a bit sarcastically optimistic – an odd combination, I know…but he is, after all, drunk as a skunk)

Despair:  “Offense?! What offense? We have, thus far, won two games by the hair of Franklin’s chinny, chin, chin and the third by the rare work of an unanticipated master. This team of ill-prepared children lacks the experience to survive a dominant pitcher! Without the passion and storied character of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick, this team lacks the heart and drive to push through adversity.”

Hope:  “Oh, I beg to differ. Mr. Pujols provides heart and drive aplenty…and the energy injected by these young players does surely provide a boost to our down-trodden veterans. And dost thou forget the return of our white knight, the man known as Ace??? Does he not exude more heart and drive – competitive passion and immovable solidarity – from his coveted index finger than the entire Kansas City fan-base?”  (Forgive Hope his, at times, out-dated dialect…it appears the influx of depressed Cubs fans has caused the local breweries to carry an abundance of clearance-priced Old Style which, true to its name, carries the unexpected side-effect of inducing the speech patterns of a man who last saw the Cubs win a World Series…)

Despair:  “Ah…I see you have again returned to your comfortable, Carp-thumping ways. ‘Wait until Carp comes back!’ you say. ‘Then, we’ll be the envy of the league and all will be set right.’ Except I have waited…and waited…and waited some more. And just when I dare to leave my solid foundation of realism, our beloved Ace again retreats to the training grounds. In truth, is he not a single throw away from a tragic end? Is he not The Man with the Glass Arm? I myself worry we have awakened him too soon – rushed his return to this life in our anxious need for effective starting pitching.”

Hope:  “But he is strong! His latest foray into battle doth testify to his health and worthiness. Besides…who knows his condition better than the great tribunal in the Cardinals’ front office? Dewitt, Mo’, and Lunhow know their realm…and they rule it with an iron pocketbook. If they trust the assurances of our worthy healers, Patella and Weinberg…who are we to question them?”

Despair:  “Ah, Hope. Hokey assurances and ancient procedures are no match for a dependable Ace in your rotation, kid. Your sad devotion to that ancient routine has not helped you conjure up a playoff birth, or given you clairvoyance enough to predict the return of our power-hitting third-baseman.”  (Despair is also a bit of a movie buff with a flare for the dramatic…)

Hope:  “Have you not watched the performances of Brian ‘The Bear Slayer,’ or reveled in the overly-aggressive acrobatics of Super-Joe Thurston? Our third basemen are solid. I do not fear a lineup without Glaus.”

Despair:  “Based on our recent offensive production, neither does the rest of the league. (holds hand up to stop Hope’s irritated protest)…I know, I know…that’s not what you meant…but it is a valid point. That dynamic duo of Barden and Thurston has not exactly been spectacular of late.”

Hope:  “(waives his hand dismissively) That is a small matter of little concern. Thurston was clearly exposed and seems on the verge of making a critical adjustment. Barden…well…he simply requires regular playing time. Besides…the defensive prowess of both easily makes up for any loss of offense we may incur as a result.”

Despair:  “Hmph. Tell that to our recent road trip.”

Hope:  “All in the past, my friend. Besides…is it not comforting that the Cardinals are finally showing an affinity for Busch Stadium? Is it not comforting to know the 2009 Cardinals – unlike their 2008 counterparts – appear to be developing a true home-field advantage?”

Despair:  “Tell that to the Brewers…”

Hope:  “Of no consequence. Surely you know that even the best seasons have their anomalies. Did we not follow such a dismal performance with a series sweep of our arch-nemesis? Do you not now feel more than a glimmer of hope that our surging momentum will continue tonight against our bordering enemies?”

Despair:  “Truthfully? I do not. How can one feel hope with the likes of Todd Wellemeyer on the mound? It’s clear to those who are truly watching that the man has lost all knowledge of himself. His body is clearly unfamiliar with the demands his mind is desperately trying to place upon it.”

Hope:  “Again, dear friend, it is almost as if you have not watched a single game this season. The Todalion has shown a humble and courageous willingness to adjust time and time again. Has he not followed dismal outings with outstanding ones already this year? Truly, his intelligence will help him here. His cleverness, combined with that of his trusted pitching coach, will surely discover a way to succeed, and his work ethic will carry him through to the victorious end.”

Despair:  “Hmmm…according to the Todalion himself, it is his ‘intelligence’ that he needs to suppress in order to stop stumbling all over himself. And yet, is not his intellect a defining factor of his own identity? How, then, can one suppress – in truth, reject! – such a core component of one’s makeup and identity and then hope to succeed???”

Hope:  “Has he not already made such titanic shifts in identity? Did he not join us as a cast-off relief pitcher with little control only to blossom into an undiscovered gem of a starting pitcher in the capable hands of Duncan? He will be okay, my friend. You will see. Especially with the young assassin Thompson watching his back.”

Despair:  “I doubt your unrestrained optimism – especially when our hopes rest on a pitcher who has already made a second 2009 home in Memphis. Without Ludwick and Ankiel…and Duncan in a slump…I fear the Todalion will have no margin for error. How long can our team continue to win while only scoring 2-3 runs a game?”

Hope:  “Ah, but did not Duncan end his slump just the other night?  And, I would add, we only need survive without Ankiel a few days at most, and Ludwick a week. Surely we can accomplish this small feat…it’s only a week.”

Despair:  “Only a week?! In 3 days, we went from first place to 3rd place and 3 games back in the division…while playing in our own stadium! How does that work with your ‘home field advantage’ theory? And, I’ll have you know, one ground ball hit with a pulled-in defense and a lucky-dawg bloop hit does not, in truth, constitute an end to a slump.”

Hope:  “But many times, it is just such a game that can allow a player to escape the doldrums of his own despair. Besides…”

I apologize, friends, but this was all I could hear before the two took to increased mumbling and unintelligible rantings. I kept waiting for one or the other to pass out from so much drink (my money was on Hope…he seemed unable to hold his liquor compared to the well-practiced drinking of Despair…), but it appears their debate has been going for quite some time and will continue to run unchecked for the foreseeable future.

Tonight, state bragging rights are at stake as the Royals come to town. Here’s hoping Despair is a drunken fool and Hope is the voice of reason.

GO CARDS!!!

Guess That Lineup!

It’s the return of everyone’s favorite game (at least, for Cardinals fans during the La Russa era)…Guess That Lineup! Tonight, the Cardinals face a tough lefty – Ted Lilly. Lilly is showing an elevated ERA against lefties this year…but the sampling size is much less than the “vs. righties” pool, so take that with a grain of salt. All in all, I gotta’ think TLR is going to try and put together a righty-heavy lineup against the lefty. Plus, doing that allows him to give Chris Duncan a logical day off.

I should point out that baseball-reference.com shows Duncan 2 for 6 against Lilly with 2 singles and no strikeouts…but Dunc is struggling and I would like to see him get some rest against a good left-handed pitcher tonight. But…as C70 pointed out via Twitter, that 2 for 6 is probably enough for Tony to plug him in…so look at that as a possible “glitch” to my lineup prediction below.

Also…as Matt Leach pointed out on the Cards’ website, TLR will want to maximize defense when Pineiro pitches…so look for his best defenders to be in the field tonight.

All that said…I’m throwin’ this lineup out there as a possible against the Cubbies:

1. Brendan Ryan 2B

2. Shane Robinson LF

3. Albert Pujols 1B

4. Yadier Molina C

5. Tyler Greene SS

6. Nick Stavinoha RF

7. Brian Barden 3B

8. Joel Pineiro P

9. Colby Rasmus CF

Okay…if all of those guys are in the lineup tonight, it wouldn’t surprise me if TLR swapped Tyler Greene and Nick Stavinoha in the hitting order…but I like Greene ahead of Stav (speed for Nick to drive in and I like Greene’s pop behind Yadi and Albert). Also, don’t be shocked to see Nick Stavinoha in the 2 hole in front of Albert with Shane Robinson in the 9 spot (putting Barden in the 6 spot and Rasmus in the 7 hole).

Should be an interesting lineup tonight, regardless…

GO CARDS!!!