Top 10 Reasons to be Optimistic…

Spring Training games are finally underway…what better way to start the Baseball Blogging Season than by injecting a little flamboyant hope into the denizens of Cardinals Nation? So…here they are…the Cards ‘N Stuff “Top 10 Reasons to be Optimistic” about your 2009 St. Louis Cardinals.

(I considered going in order of least to greatest…but the OCD in me doesn’t like having the number 10 on top…too top-heavy. So deal…)

1.  Chris Carpenter   I’ve heard some chatter about the Cardinals counting too much on Carpenter’s health. I disagree – strongly. The Cardinals can’t go out and sign anyone capable of filling a mid-rotation spot just to watch him sit on the bench if Carp is healthy. And if he’s not healthy? K-Mac, anyone? And if someone else goes down? Well…that’s why we have Thompson, Boggs, etc. Don’t worry…we’ll make it through. For now, just revel in the glorious anticipation of watching a healthy Chris Carpenter flingin’ it old style from the mound.

2.  Adam Wainwright   The Wagon Maker makes the rotation go ’round. Waino is now the heart of this pitching staff – dependable, healthy, and capable. The guy knows how to compete, and despite his fluke finger injury last year, you can count on him to run out their every fifth day. He’s a pitcher any team - any team – would love to have right now.  The mere presence of a pitcher of his caliber is reason enough to be optimistic.

3.  Our Starting Rotation   Okay…I know it’s kind of cheating to use Carp and Waino as 1 and 2 and then make the overall rotation number 3…but it’s warranted. Think about it – Carp and Waino are self-explanatory…but the rest of our rotation looks like this:  Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Pin-head (I refuse to call him anything else until he pulls his head out of his posterior). In ‘08, Lohse should have been an All-Star (’nuff said). Wellemeyer won a Pitcher of the Month award and was one of the best in baseball when he was healthy. And Pin-head? Well…I really think he’ll be better than last year…but even if he’s not, Tony won’t let him flounder there. He’ll make a move fairly soon. J.P is on a very short leash. Overall, our rotation certainly makes me optimistic.

4.  Kahlil Greene   A significant upgrade to the lineup at SS, Greene has the potential to be a huge hit (pardon the pun) this year. Expect him to hit closer to his 27 homer season than his dismal 10 homer performance of last year. Sure, he won’t be a .300 hitter, but he’s going to fill a large hole in the order.

5.  Not-So-Holey Lineup   Again…cheating. With the addition of Greene at SS and the departure of Kennedy at second, we have the potential to conceivably fill every hole in our lineup this season. Schumaker has a very real shot to stick at second base, and that improves this lineup in more ways than one. First, Skip upgrades our second-base position by about 20 BA points and 7 home runs. Second, by fitting Skip into the lineup at second, we get to upgrade his previously held starting outfield spot with either a power upgrade (Duncan) or 5-tool player upgrade (Rasmus). Third, simply by moving Skip to second, we’ve not only upgraded an outfield spot AND a 2B spot – we’ve upgraded the bench. By not being forced to add a so-so hitting second baseman to our lineup, we get to add a clear offensive threat in Mather/Rasmus/Duncan/Unknown to our roster. Our bench can go back to being an asset as opposed to a liability – like in 2004. That’s right…I just compared this lineup to the 2004 offensive powerhouse. Think about it…put a lineup together that includes Skip at second base and hitting in the lead-off spot. Where’s the hole? That was the one thing that was so effective about our ‘04 lineup – there was no hole in the order.

6.  3rd Base Depth   This is something we lacked last season. When Glaus couldn’t go…we might as well put a sheet of plywood up next to the third base bag and take an automatic out at the plate. Now, however, not only do we have Freese, Mather, and one or two other viable options, but we even have the ability to spell Glaus every once in a while to keep him strong. I think he got winded last year and had a few stretches where he was either just worn out or just a bit outta whack. Without a viable backup, he couldn’t really take a day off. This year is different. Having a good backup will make Glaus and the team better.

7.  No Sheets/Sabathia   Last season, I could’ve thrown my head against a brick wall more than once at the prospect of facing a rotation like the Brewers in a short series. This year, we have the upper hand. With Carp, Waino, Lohse, and Wellemeyer facing a Sheets/Sabathia-less Brew-Crew…I gotta’ say I feel good about our chances in the division.

8.  Albert’s Elbow   While he didn’t have the major surgery we all fear, he did have a minor surgery to hopefully relieve some of the pain he’s decided to play through. He should be even more impactful to the lineup this year than he was last year…especially since the guys behind him are a bit more established in the eyes of MLB pitchers.

9.  One More Year   Last year, we all wondered how Ank would hold up serving a full season in an MLB outfield; we had no clue what Luddy was capable of doing; and Dunc was a non-factor at the plate and a distracting topic in the fan base. THIS year, however, things are different. Ank is healthy and ready to build on the success he had last season. Dunc is healthy for the first time in two years and ready to reclaim the raw power we all know he has stowed away in that large frame. And Luddy…he’s finally put it all together as an everyday player…the first quality everyday player we’ve had in right field since Larry Walker (who had to be spelled here and there due to age and wear and tear). What a difference a year makes…

10.  They’re STILL the Cubs   ‘Nuff said.

GO CARDS!!!

Bird Watching: Weren’t We Supposed to have a Surplus?

The Cardinals started the season on an amazing run. Sure, they were leaving men on base at a record pace (we don’t really know the record, but we just like to make grandiose and unfounded statements like this), and sure, the offense, billed as one akin to an American League ball-boppin’ lineup, wasn’t exactly lightin’ teams up…but the pitching was better than expected. Much better. In fact, the Cardinals starting rotation was among the best in baseball. And it was only going to get better.

Signed in the off-season, Matt Clement was this year’s rotation sleeper. Coming off shoulder surgery and a long absence from the mound, Clement was expected to be ready for the first week of the season. When Spring Training began, however, it was clear he needed a bit more time to strengthen his well-rested throwing arm. No problem. He went to extended Spring Training and the team moved on. Currently: Reports have Clement throwing well below his necessary/former velocity and Johnny Mo seems to be growing impatient. It is now doubtful Clement will ever pitch as a Cardinal.

Joel Piniero signed a two-year, $13 million dollar contract last year and was set to hold down a middle to back of the rotation spot for the Cardinals for the next two years. He developed a shoulder issue in Spring Training that sent him to extended Spring Training as well. Again, the team moved on. Upon his return, Joel has been less than stellar. Currently: Joel is scheduled to skip his next start and may very well end up on the DL. His injury? Well, if it were up to me, I would call brain cramp…the guy has reportedly been having problems maintaining his concentration level through the middle innings. At this point, he has to be the odd man out if ANYONE ever gets off the DL and returns to our rotation.

Mark Mulder, after his second shoulder surgery last season, was expected to make it back to the rotation by the first week of June at the latest. After experiencing “discomfort” in his repaired shoulder, his rehab assignment was mercifully halted (the triple A clubs were lighting the guy up). Currently: He is now sitting for a 2 week rest-your-arm assignment while he awaits yet his second rehab attempt this season alone. It is now becoming doubtful he will ever pitch this season.

Brad Thompson has somehow fallen out of favor with TLR and Dave Duncan. After pitching…well…pretty much the same as he’s always pitched during Duncan’s love affair with the temperamental right-hander…Thompson was sent down to Triple A and Dl’ed with elbow problems. Currently: I have heard reports that he is rehabbing the elbow, but all indications suggest Thompson will never appear in a Cardinals uniform again. Why? My best guess is this: Thompson had the luxury of making it to the Big League club while our farm system was depleted. A pretty average pitcher at best, Thompson received an opportunity not because he was the best, but because the Cardinals’ minor league system was significantly lacking a “best” pitching prospect. That is no longer the case. With multiple young arms ready to go at Triple A, Thompson has simply lost his spot on the depth chart. He would do well to end up in a trade.

Chris Carpenter MIGHT be the one bright spot to all of this. Reports suggest he is progressing nicely, despite a supposed “not even a hiccup” hiccup. He is expected back sometime around mid-July. We’ll see.

So…where does this leave us? Todd Wellemeyer. Thank God for Todd Wellemeyer. The guy has somehow managed to put up ace-like numbers and post the best win-loss record on the team. His ERA rivals Wainwright’s, and his strikeout/walk ratio continues to impress (for a bargain basement pickup). Dave Duncan has harnessed the “live arm” of this Kentucky Colonel, and it is paying off. Other than that? Well…we have Waino. Looper is steadily earning the team’s trust (despite last night’s crazy-leg performance). And Lohse is on more often than not (he has clearly benefited from Dunc’s strategy-heavy approach on the mound). After that…who?

Piniero looks to be temporarily replaced by Mike Parisi in the starting rotation due to a groin strain (he was shagging balls in the outfield – nice). It’s either him, or Anthony Reyes…and it doesn’t seem likely that TLR and Dunc are in a position to trust Reyes (but you never know). Either way, it makes me wonder. With the way Piniero has been getting knocked around the field (even on outs), will he be able to earn his rotation spot back after his DL stint? Parisi has looked good early on and clearly has the look and feel of a starter. McClellan is considered a possible candidate for a future rotation spot in the organization. Is it possible that Joel Piniero could have just shagged his way out of a rotation spot? If anyone comes in and pitches effectively during Joel’s absence, how do you hand the spot back to him after the way he was serving it up through several starts?

All in all, Joel’s fate is not my main concern. Our yet to materialize pitching surplus we were all so excited about is, however. We are gradually backing our way into a pitching crunch. With Thompson, Carpenter, Mulder, Clement, and possibly Piniero, we have an entire Major League pitching rotation on the DL…and very little hope of more than one returning effectively.

Let me also throw in one more cause for concern regarding our rotation. Wellemeyer is looking to pitch his first full season as a Major League starting pitcher. Looper is consistently throwing 100 pitches per start, every fifth day, for the first time in his career. Lohse has already been experiencing some discomfort in his throwing arm after an unusual Spring Training regimen. Even Waino, going into start after start with the burden of “saving the bullpen,” is going to see quite a bit of wear on a well-burdened arm. So, the question is…who is going to get injured first, and how will Johnny Mo address such a situation?

Will he continue with Parisi? Will he look for a veteran pitcher to eat innings and give the team a shot to win? Or, will he finally pull the trigger on the youth movement and dip into the plethora of talent in Memphis?

Mind you, I’m not in favor of accelerating the development of our young arms…gambling our future just for one season is not a good gamble at all…but the possibility of seeing Garcia in the bigs this year does intrigue me.

One more thought on our pitching situation and then we’ll move on to Bird Seeds…if Parisi DOES take Joel’s scheduled start…does that mean we will call up a pitcher to take his spot in the bullpen? Hmmmm…if so, is it possible we could get a look at Jason Motte??? The kid’s inability to throw a pitch other than his fastball with any effectiveness concerns me…but it would be exciting…wouldn’t it?

Okay…enough for this week. The Cardinals look to rebound against the Houston Astros after a disheartening loss at home last night. Game is on at 7:15 pm our time.

GO CARDS!!!

BIRD SEEDS

Colby Rasmus says, “My name’s not Mendoza!!!”  Rasmus, the team’s number one prospect in Triple A, may finally be figuring some things out. Coming into today’s game, Rasmus was hitting around .318 in his last six games with a homerun, 3 RBIs, 6 walks, and 6 runs scored. This recent improvement has elevated his average to a whopping .195, finally threatening to break through the Mendoza line. However, Joe Mather is still whooping his a$$…

Barton Hits First Home Run!!!  Brian Barton knocked his first home run of his young career last night. His awkward, out in front swing sent a line drive carrying into the visitor’s bullpen. Of course, a St. Louis police officer unknowingly tossed the ball to a fan in the stands, so Barton may never get the ball. And I guess it would be too much to ask for the fan to show a little class and return the ball to Barton…I would be shocked…

I Like My Yadi with a Side of “K”   After starting the season as the hardest man in the NL to strikeout, Yadier Molina has been slowly returning to form with a strikeout in each of his last three games played. Thank God!!! This could actually be a good sign. Yadi has always been known for his defensive prowess, but this year has been a bit different. This year, Molina may very well reach a career high for errors and a career low for base runners thrown out. One has to wonder if his focus and overall game approach has changed a bit as he attempts to improve his performance at the plate. Could it be affecting his defense? I don’t know, but I do know this…Yadi’s contact-hitting approach at the plate is costing this team in RBIs. Yadi is second on the team in grounding into double plays. With nearly 30 fewer at bats than Skip Schumaker (9 GDPs), Yadi has only 1 less GDP (8). At the six or seven spot in the order, we don’t need a contact hitter – especially one with his “speed” – we need an aggressive swinging RBI man. Oh, and by the way…during this 3 game “K” trend, Yadi was finally able to complete his patented pick-off play at first last night. Like I said, a Yadi that strikes out is a-okay with me…

Albert Pujols Says, “What About Me?”  All I hear is Berkman, Berkman, Berkman…and, yeah…the guy is a stud this year…and I like Berkman…but let’s not forget El Hombre. Pujols has been quietly heating it up lately. From May 2nd through May 13th (11 games), Pujols hit app. .307 with 10 walks, 3 HRs, and 6 RBIs. From May 14th to present (12 games), he’s hitting app. .412 with 3 walks, 4 HRs, and 8 RBIs.  Let’s review…his walks have been more than cut in half and his average has increased by more than 100 points. It looks as if pitchers may be challenging the Cardinals slugger a bit more than usual…but a quick glance at the difference in RBI totals suggests they are only doing it in a bases empty situation…hmmm…

A Disturbing Trend  During the ‘08 season, our one claim to offensive fame thus far has been our OBP. Cardinals hitters have been getting on base more than any other NL team. However, after noticing a lack of walks and an increase in strikeouts the last few games, I decided to do a bit of digging. This season, the Cardinals are ranked 2nd in overall OBP with .363 and 240 walks. The last 7 days tell a different story. In the last 7 days, the Cardinals ranked 12th in OBP with .304 and 16 walks. Could other teams be figuring us out, a bit? With every announcer in baseball pointing out our high walk totals and OBP as well as our unusually high number of runners left on base, has it finally occurred to pitchers to simply throw strikes to our young hitters? That could certainly account for Pujols’ increase in numbers (see above)…but it doesn’t make me feel all warm inside…quite the opposite, in fact. It makes me wonder, can this team win without the high OBP numbers? If recent stats are any indication, it looks like we’re going to get the chance to find out.

Kyle Lohse Soon to be a Red Bird…

At this point, I feel good about this signing (even though he still has to pass the physical – fingers crossed that I didn’t just jinx it), but I reserve the right to completely pull a 180 if the terms of the deal exceed $5 million. We’ll see…

So far, so good…he’s an innings eater…