Top 10 Reasons to be Optimistic…

Spring Training games are finally underway…what better way to start the Baseball Blogging Season than by injecting a little flamboyant hope into the denizens of Cardinals Nation? So…here they are…the Cards ‘N Stuff “Top 10 Reasons to be Optimistic” about your 2009 St. Louis Cardinals.

(I considered going in order of least to greatest…but the OCD in me doesn’t like having the number 10 on top…too top-heavy. So deal…)

1.  Chris Carpenter   I’ve heard some chatter about the Cardinals counting too much on Carpenter’s health. I disagree – strongly. The Cardinals can’t go out and sign anyone capable of filling a mid-rotation spot just to watch him sit on the bench if Carp is healthy. And if he’s not healthy? K-Mac, anyone? And if someone else goes down? Well…that’s why we have Thompson, Boggs, etc. Don’t worry…we’ll make it through. For now, just revel in the glorious anticipation of watching a healthy Chris Carpenter flingin’ it old style from the mound.

2.  Adam Wainwright   The Wagon Maker makes the rotation go ’round. Waino is now the heart of this pitching staff – dependable, healthy, and capable. The guy knows how to compete, and despite his fluke finger injury last year, you can count on him to run out their every fifth day. He’s a pitcher any team - any team – would love to have right now.  The mere presence of a pitcher of his caliber is reason enough to be optimistic.

3.  Our Starting Rotation   Okay…I know it’s kind of cheating to use Carp and Waino as 1 and 2 and then make the overall rotation number 3…but it’s warranted. Think about it – Carp and Waino are self-explanatory…but the rest of our rotation looks like this:  Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Pin-head (I refuse to call him anything else until he pulls his head out of his posterior). In ‘08, Lohse should have been an All-Star (’nuff said). Wellemeyer won a Pitcher of the Month award and was one of the best in baseball when he was healthy. And Pin-head? Well…I really think he’ll be better than last year…but even if he’s not, Tony won’t let him flounder there. He’ll make a move fairly soon. J.P is on a very short leash. Overall, our rotation certainly makes me optimistic.

4.  Kahlil Greene   A significant upgrade to the lineup at SS, Greene has the potential to be a huge hit (pardon the pun) this year. Expect him to hit closer to his 27 homer season than his dismal 10 homer performance of last year. Sure, he won’t be a .300 hitter, but he’s going to fill a large hole in the order.

5.  Not-So-Holey Lineup   Again…cheating. With the addition of Greene at SS and the departure of Kennedy at second, we have the potential to conceivably fill every hole in our lineup this season. Schumaker has a very real shot to stick at second base, and that improves this lineup in more ways than one. First, Skip upgrades our second-base position by about 20 BA points and 7 home runs. Second, by fitting Skip into the lineup at second, we get to upgrade his previously held starting outfield spot with either a power upgrade (Duncan) or 5-tool player upgrade (Rasmus). Third, simply by moving Skip to second, we’ve not only upgraded an outfield spot AND a 2B spot – we’ve upgraded the bench. By not being forced to add a so-so hitting second baseman to our lineup, we get to add a clear offensive threat in Mather/Rasmus/Duncan/Unknown to our roster. Our bench can go back to being an asset as opposed to a liability – like in 2004. That’s right…I just compared this lineup to the 2004 offensive powerhouse. Think about it…put a lineup together that includes Skip at second base and hitting in the lead-off spot. Where’s the hole? That was the one thing that was so effective about our ‘04 lineup – there was no hole in the order.

6.  3rd Base Depth   This is something we lacked last season. When Glaus couldn’t go…we might as well put a sheet of plywood up next to the third base bag and take an automatic out at the plate. Now, however, not only do we have Freese, Mather, and one or two other viable options, but we even have the ability to spell Glaus every once in a while to keep him strong. I think he got winded last year and had a few stretches where he was either just worn out or just a bit outta whack. Without a viable backup, he couldn’t really take a day off. This year is different. Having a good backup will make Glaus and the team better.

7.  No Sheets/Sabathia   Last season, I could’ve thrown my head against a brick wall more than once at the prospect of facing a rotation like the Brewers in a short series. This year, we have the upper hand. With Carp, Waino, Lohse, and Wellemeyer facing a Sheets/Sabathia-less Brew-Crew…I gotta’ say I feel good about our chances in the division.

8.  Albert’s Elbow   While he didn’t have the major surgery we all fear, he did have a minor surgery to hopefully relieve some of the pain he’s decided to play through. He should be even more impactful to the lineup this year than he was last year…especially since the guys behind him are a bit more established in the eyes of MLB pitchers.

9.  One More Year   Last year, we all wondered how Ank would hold up serving a full season in an MLB outfield; we had no clue what Luddy was capable of doing; and Dunc was a non-factor at the plate and a distracting topic in the fan base. THIS year, however, things are different. Ank is healthy and ready to build on the success he had last season. Dunc is healthy for the first time in two years and ready to reclaim the raw power we all know he has stowed away in that large frame. And Luddy…he’s finally put it all together as an everyday player…the first quality everyday player we’ve had in right field since Larry Walker (who had to be spelled here and there due to age and wear and tear). What a difference a year makes…

10.  They’re STILL the Cubs   ‘Nuff said.

GO CARDS!!!

INSANITY!

I don’t get it. I just…I really don’t get it. How do Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan sit down for dinner, begin discussing the Cardinals’ pitching situation, and conclude that Adam Wainwright can best help the Cardinals by pitching out of the ‘pen? It’s times like this that I desperately wish I could somehow email the Cardinals’ dugout and lay the e-smack down on their coaches. What are they thinking?!?!

In a previous post ( http://cardsnstuff.wordpress.com/2008/08/06/close-but-no-closer/ ), I addressed the Waino in the closer role discussion like this:

You don’t take an ace quality pitcher and limit his innings. What would you think if the Cubs suddenly moved Rich Harden to the closer role? Or the Brewers suddenly yanked Sheets out of the rotation and inserted him into the ninth inning? I’ll tell you what my reaction would be…Whoo Hoo! The fewer innings I have to face those guys, the better…and if they are the closer, a lead by my team means I don’t have to face them at all. The same is true of Wainwright. You want to make Brewers and Cubs fans happy? Move Waino to the closer role.

Now, the discussion has “popped” up again – Waino to the ‘pen.

Let’s think about this…the Cardinals have a 2-game series coming up next week against the Brewers. In that series, they have a realistic chance of throwing Carp and Waino at them back-to-back to possibly put us in a virtual tie for the Wild Card, if not better. Instead, Duncan says it’s “unlikely” that the two co-aces will co-exist in the rotation in the foreseeable future. If Carp is healthy and appears ready to go, Waino is likely scheduled to appear in the ‘pen. If not, Carp is out and Waino is in the rotation.

This is absolutely ridiculous. It’s as close as it comes to baseball insanity.

Let me tell you what’s going to happen. Carp is going to be healthy after his side session this week. TLR and Dunc will insert him into the rotation schedule for the first game against the Brewers. Then, someone else will pitch the second game – Joel? Wellemeyer? Whoever it is, they won’t be as good as Wainwright, and the Brewers lineup, after being frustrated by Carp all night long the day before, will tee off against our starting pitcher in the early innings of the second game. It will be four or five to nothing in the third or fourth inning…and when the Brewers leave town, they’ll load our playoff hopes onto their Milwaukee-bound greyhound and carry them right out of St. Louis. And Wainwright will be sitting in the ‘pen, having never even glimpsed the mound for lack of a save situation, wondering why his manager kept his best bullet in his pocket when the Cardinals were clearly in a life or death situation.

Absurd.

A fan on the Post-Dispatch forum was praising the bullpen for their recent improvement. Apparently, this fan was praising Mo for not getting bullpen help at the deadline. Sure, Mo did the right thing, but not because this ‘pen didn’t need the help – because it did – but simply because the price was too high…by far (K-Mac, Garcia, Bryan Anderson, plus 1 for Fuentes? I think not…). So, if this ‘pen didn’t improve through trade, and they didn’t improve because they didn’t need the help in the first place, why did they improve?

Because of the starting pitchers.

Our rotation has finally been consistently going longer than 5 innings for a comparatively long stretch of time. And, lo’ and behold, our bullpen has improved. Wow. Imagine that…starting pitchers working deep in games actually improves the bullpen. Who would’ve ever “thunk” it? This is not a new concept, people. This is why we need Wainwright AND Carp in the rotation.

I know, I know…you’re reading this thinking, “They aren’t ready to go that deep in games, yet!” First of all, they’re more ready than we think…considering the type of pitchers they are in the first place (low-count, ground ball, efficient starters). Carp and Waino could do more with 70 pitches than most MLB pitchers can do with 100. But, you do have a point…they aren’t fully conditioned to pitch 7 strong innings…yet. Of course, Wainwright would get a start against Atlanta before the Brewers series to build some stamina, but that’s just one game.

So, why am I still implying they could help the ‘pen if their stamina isn’t 100%? Because they battle. Because they refuse to break. When Joel and Lohse are pitching in the seventh in a one run game with runners at first and second with one out, chances are, they’re going to score. But with Adam and Carp…those guys can and will bear down and get out of the inning. Why is that important? Because just having them in the game, in the same situation as the other starters, means you get to save at least one and possibly two relievers out of the ‘pen each time they start a game. With Lohse and Joel, Tony’s going to have to go to Springer or some combination of Villone/Garcia and a righty-to-be-named-later. He’s going to have to stretch McClellan and Perez or both because he needs the big outs. And all that mix and match relief pitching depletes the ‘pen and makes us vulnerable for subsequent games.

I’ll put it this way…with ace quality pitching on the mound, your bullpen is a luxury…a fall-back plan in case things don’t…well…go as planned. Sure, you usually (and will in their case) have to use them, but you don’t have to use them near as much. With the other 3 or 4 starters in our rotation, however…the bullpen IS the plan. You enter the game knowing your ‘pen is going to be in the game by, at best, the seventh inning. And, because the run differential is most likely going to be smaller with a middle or back end of the rotation starter, you’re going to have to use more bullpen pitchers to get the same number of outs if they come in to back up Joel or Lohse than if they came in to back up Waino and/or Carp. Why? Because your margin for error is much smaller with the other guys. You can’t afford to let Villone face a lefty, a righty, and a lefty in the seventh inning of a one run game…you’ve got to bring in Springer or K-Mac. But if those guys are backing up Waino/Carp, then the run differential may look more like 2 or 3 or even 4 runs…and then, all of a sudden, you’ve got some options to play with…and maybe Villone goes a batter or two longer…or he never comes in the game at all because K-Mac is able to handle it.

Look…the bottom line is this…the Cards are a better team with Wainwright AND Carpenter in the rotation…Period. I don’t care what you throw back at me…that’s just simple, common sense truth. And TLR and Dunc have got to get over their “I can’t sleep with this many rookies in the ‘pen” mentality and realize that our playoff hopes (both making it and winning once we get there) are much better when our two co-aces are actually allowed to be aces in the rotation.

Period.

“Close” but no “Closer”…

Last night’s ninth inning was frustrating to say the least. It seems Isringhausen has improved, for the most part, on his inability to throw strikes. It even seems that improvement may have cut down on his inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. But…he’s still very hittable. I’ve supported putting Izzy back in the closer role, mainly because we have to know what we have…a closer or a “used to be a closer.” And, to be honest, last night was not entirely Izzy’s pitching that was to blame. If he comes up with that ground ball, the game most likely ends in the ninth – but let’s not kid ourselves. If a closer puts himself in a bases loaded situation, that’s bad. I don’t care if he gets out of it or not…he has no business being in that situation anyway. It’s clear the Cardinals have to (and will) take another look at their closer situation today. So, I’ve decided to put together a few options. Take the poll on the right to let me know what you think of the possibilities below:

Currently on the MLB level roster

Jason Isringhausen    Yes, he’s still an option, albeit not a very enticing one at this point. Izzy just doesn’t have it right now, and I don’t know that he ever will again. He looks as if he’s throwing very hesitantly. His hip surgery may have been a success, but I think it’s changed how he pitches. He used to throw “all-in” and fully commit to the plate with every pitch. However, his hip difficulties have forced him into a change in delivery…perhaps out of habit in trying to protect his hip prior to the surgery or maybe out of necessity because his repaired hip just can’t take the stress any longer. Whatever it is, it’s causing him to groove the ball to hitters. He’s entirely hittable, and without a high risk (to his hip) change in delivery, I don’t think he’ll ever get back to “closer worthy” again. At this point, Izzy is a 7th or 8th inning reliever, but that’s it.

Ryan Franklin    This guy has good stuff. He’s got the right mental approach, toughness, etc. – but he just doesn’t have a dominant pitch to challenge hitters with in the ninth. That doesn’t stop him from trying, however. “Frank” has solo home run written all over half his fastballs, and that just can’t happen in the ninth inning. As a setup man in the 8th, Ryan can afford to take a few more risks…especially at home…and his use of the off-speed stuff is actually beneficial to the pending closer because of the sudden change in velocity/stuff they will be seeing in the ninth. But those luxuries do not translate well to the ninth inning. Franklin just doesn’t have the fast ball to consistently challenge hitters in the ninth inning the way he is accustomed to doing it in the 8th. And none of this even addresses the fact that Franklin himself is clearly not comfortable in the closer role. All of that said, Ryan can be a very effective pitcher in the ninth inning, but more a Trevor Hoffman style (location and off-speed pitches) than an Izzy-in-his-prime style; but if the guy pitches the ninth like an ideal setup/8th inning guy, doesn’t that mean he should be a setup/8th inning pitcher?

Russ Springer    Springer has been outstanding this year (not considering his last appearance), which is exactly why the club is hesitant to pull him from his current role – come into tough spots with runners on base and get outs. At the same time, if the guy is currently your best bullpen pitcher, doesn’t that make him the closer by TLR’s own definition? Springer could do the job…for the most part. He’s tough as they come in the ‘pen. He knows how to pitch and how to locate. His fastball isn’t dominating but it’s not meat either. He could do it. The problems? He couldn’t do it every night. Putting Springer in the closer role automatically means you will be a “closer by committee” team – at least somewhat. Russ is just old, and his body can’t take it anymore. That was clear in Sunday’s game. The guy was just worn out after being used in several consecutive days. Also, I’ve heard reports that he struggles a bit with lefties. So, putting Springer in the role means you may have to spell him a bit due to his age, and he may have to share a few ninth inning appearances with a lefty specialist. Splitting time with a lefty and another closer makes you not really the closer at all.

Kyle McClellan    K-Mac may be able to do the job. He certainly has the stuff (especially with that breaking ball), and his fastball is good enough. He’s shown unusual poise and durability in his first big league season, but that’s just it…can we really expect to catch lightening in a bottle with a rookie starter-turned-reliever-turned-closer twice in three years (e.g. Waino)? Really, I don’t have any knocks against Kyle. I think he could do it. But what about the impact on the rest of the bullpen? Isn’t the closer supposed to restore order to the bullpen – not introduce even more role confusion? If another viable option exists, K-Mac is much too valuable in his current role to risk further upsetting the bullpen by moving him into ninth inning duties.

Currently on the AAA level roster

Chris Perez    Perez, in his initial stint in the Bigs, was not up to the task of closing out MLB games. He lacked a viable second pitch and was prone to bouts of wildness at inopportune times. When he was sent down to Memphis, he was specifically instructed to work on his slider and pay no attention to the results. In his last ten games at AAA, Chris was scored on twice – once in one game and five times in another. If those are save opportunities, one could say he has two blown saves in ten opportunities…in AAA. Considering that number could double or triple against MLB hitters, I have to hope the kid’s a good listener and didn’t worry about the results. Of course, if he’s consistently throwing his slider, I have to wonder if it has actually improved at all…as is, he seems pretty hittable. Still, he could be the best option considering the above possibilities.

Jason Motte    This kid is a toss-up to me. A former catcher turned pitcher, he’s certainly lighting up the minor leagues. In his last ten games at Memphis, Motte’s numbers are impressive:  13.1 innings pitched, 6 hits, 1 earned run, 3 walks, 27 strikeouts, and a 0.68 ERA. However, reports suggest his fastball – while “blazing” – lacks movement and occasionally misses it’s spot. As a recent inductee to the bullpen club, he also lacks a dominant second pitch. He does possess a slider, but it is reportedly less than impressive and perhaps telegraphed. Long story short, the kid’s gonna’ get timed and pounded at this level…maybe. After all, how do you bet against a kid that throws it 96 – 98 mph? Still…without much movement, that’s good enough to get your 6 – 9 hitters out, but the top of the order is gonna’ pound you.

Currently on the AA level roster

Fernando Salas    This guy is an enigma. He has 21 saves at Springfield, was selected to this year’s Futures Game when Jaime Garcia couldn’t go (no small task), and certainly looks impressive when I watch him pitch in person. But the reality is this…no one knows what to expect from him. He seems like the Springfield Mystery Man. I don’t like the idea of bringing this guy up.

Jess Todd    I really like the idea of bringing this guy up. According to all reports, this kid has a good cutter, a good slider, and several other pitches that could be used in a ninth inning role without fear. He’s currently a starter for Springfield, but I would love to see how his “phenom-like” pitches could translate to the Big League level right now…especially in a one-time-through-the-order situation like the ninth inning. Very intriguing…not very realistic, however. But remember, teams were specifically interested in Todd at the trade deadline for a reason.

Rotation considerations

Adam Wainwright    No. This option has been talked into the ground by many, many writers/sources, so I won’t spend much time on it here. But let me say this…Waino is FAR too valuable in the rotation to move into the closer role. You don’t take an ace quality pitcher and limit his innings. What would you think if the Cubs suddenly moved Rich Harden to the closer role? Or the Brewers suddenly yanked Sheets out of the rotation and inserted him into the ninth inning? I’ll tell you what my reaction would be…Whoo Hoo! The fewer innings I have to face those guys, the better…and if they are the closer, a lead by my team means I don’t have to face them at all. The same is true of Wainwright. You want to make Brewers and Cubs fans happy? Move Waino to the closer role. Otherwise, stop going down this road and find another option.

Braden Looper    This could work, especially with how much Looper has changed his approach to pitching since becoming a starter, but I still don’t like it. He doesn’t have dominant stuff to begin with, and the possibility of him suddenly discovering it because he is moved into a role that needs it is slim to none. However, he does have the experience. He was a closer for the Mets not that long ago. But don’t forget how we got him…he wasn’t removed from the closer’s role for no reason.

Todd Wellemeyer    This idea has merit. The guy has a good fastball (velocity and movement) and a decent slider. The problem? To get that “good” velocity a quality ninth inning pitcher of his type throws, he has to sacrifice control. He can throw 95 – 97 mph consistently (with movement), but without control. To keep from walking the side, he has to cut it back to 91 – 93 mph. Still, his fastball has enough movement and “life” to get hitters out consistently even with the self-imposed decrease in velocity. Problem number 2? His slider is a toss-up. Half the time it’s on, the other half it’s not. And if he can’t rely on his slider, his fastball tends to get him in trouble. Not a good combination.

Way out there options

Rick Ankiel    Hehe…just kidding.

Wrap-up
I will say this…I would not want to be TLR, Dunc, and Mo right now. There is no clear-cut decision to be made here…but something does have to be done. And it has to be done sooner rather than later if we expect to continue contending.

A quick note on the young guys (Todd, Motte, etc.):  In a full season, these kids could become exposed (especially Motte) and timed. But we’re talking a month and a half left in the season. Most of these teams are going to see us one more time, twice at the most. Not counting the post season, I’m not sure they would see the kids enough in the ninth inning role to time them or “sit” on any one pitch. Still…counting on a “short term assignment” theory like that is a big gamble in itself.

Ah well…glad it’s not my decision…GO CARDS!!!