Bird Watching: No place like home…

It’s been a while, but with a new baby, a new internship, and countless other changes to my everyday life…my blogging time has justifiably suffered. However, with the bitter taste of our most recent road trip lingering like bile on my tongue, I can’t help but throw a few Bird Seeds items out there to tide you over. So, here it goes…a little welcome home message for the Cardinals and their fans:

Greene is a Serious Color  I was thrilled when we picked up Khalil Greene for (at the time) next to nothing…but I’m 90% ready for Tyler to show us what he’s got. I watched Tyler Greene in person for a while in Springfield, and he’s always had a sharp bat and strong, natural talent in the field. He’s the real deal…and it may be time to let him prove it. Honestly, I think Brendan’s reassignment to AAA for rehab may be, in part, to allow Tyler a longer look at the Big League level. If he continues to play as he has…good things.  Barring a serious production reduction (hehe), the Cardinals need to find a way to keep him at this level for the foreseeable future.

Enough with Joe Thurston  Look…Joe Thurston is a talented andaggressive player with an occasionally dynamic bat. That’s it. He’s not consistent. He doesn’t play smart. He attempts to over-hustle to compensate for a lack of baseball maturity at this level, and he thinks he’s Albert Pujols on the base paths. Brian Barden, on the other hand, is almost the exact opposite. I don’t think Barden is our long-term answer at third base…but I absolutely think he is our short-term solution. The guy gets rookie of the month andthen gets his at-bats limited to 17 for the month of May to Thurston’s 38!!! Come on…if it wasn’t for TLR’slove affair with Thurston, Barden would be getting the majority of the at-bats at third base. And the worst part of it…Barden’s level of play has suffered for it. The guy needs consistency to produce. Plug him in the lineup, sit Thurston down, and use Joe as a pinch-hitter and 2nd base late inning sub.

4-Man Rotation  No, I don’t mean the starting pitchers…I mean the outfielders. Ankiel is due back next week, and Ludwick won’t be too far behind. With the way Rasmus is grabbing hold of his consistent playing opportunities, our four-man rotation in the outfield is looking pretty promising. We could roll through the rest of the season giving every outfielder every 4th day off to keep them fresh and sharp. Play 3, take a day…play another 3, take a day. With the bats in our outfield, we suffer little by subbing one for another. I see no reason to trade one of them away if Carp’s return can help right the ship in our starting five.

Woeful Wellemeyer  I like Todd. I really do. But maybe it’s time for him to start taking a hard look at his eccentricities. Starting pitchers don’t talk to others on the day of their start for a reason…focus. Wellemeyer, however, is the abnormal one. He has no problem talking, interviewing, and even occasionally twittering (I hate the term “tweeting”) on a scheduled start day. In the past, we (fans) and the media have received this unique trait with a certain fondness. Enough. I don’t know if it’s mechanics, delivery flaws, or just a simple inability to focus…but Wellemeyerhas got to start doing things differently. He had about two thirds of a decent season last year on the mound…and then moaned about “not feeling right” or his bum elbow the rest of the time. That’s all we know of the guy. His first half season with us…he was a wild gamble every start. He walked the side and survived on a wicked fastball and the occasional slider. Now, he’s toned down his fastball and all but eliminated his slider in the early innings. The result…fewer walks and more hits. A bit more on Wellemeyer:

The time has come to face reality with Todd Wellemeyer. The guy is either hurt, experiencing major flaws in his mechanics, and/or taking a flawed approach into every game (e.g. throwing too many fastballs early). Or…he’s just not the pitcher we all thought he was in the first place. Personally…I think it’s a combination of approach and a stubborn inability to conform to the routine of a starting pitcher. To get the first out of the way (and this is thanks to Matt Leach of mlb.com), Todd is throwing way too many fastballs early in the game andall but abandoning his slider. As Matt put it, he must throw his slider. I understand the approach…throw the fastball early andsave the slider for the second and third time through the order…but it’s not working for him. Guys are jumping on his fastball (typically up in the zone) and stringing together too many hits in one inning. My concern here is this: If he has to use his full repertoire of pitches early in the game, doesn’t that make him more hittable the third and fourth time through the order? Are we solving early inning runs and replacing them with late inning runs? I don’t know…but I’m not all that concerned about his game plan. I’m more concerned about the personality he’s taking into the game. Wellemeyer’s eccentricity was cool and a good discussion topic when he was pitching well…now, it’s a target. At some point, Todd has got to figure out that he is a starting pitcher, now. He would do well to mimic the likes of Carp and maximize focus before, during, and in between starts. I just haven’t seen it yet.

On a Positive Note  The bullpen seems to have turned it around…and not in ideal conditions. With quality starts a recent “thing of the past,” the ‘pen has done an outstanding job limiting the damage. Considering where this ‘pen was last season and the start of this season, it is commendable the way they’ve pulled themselves together. Let’s hope the starting five gets themselves figured out before the ‘pen can get beat up and worn down from over use.

A Final Comment…  Can we stop with the “mechanics problem” and/or “flaw in my delivery” issues for starting pitchers? Look…you either get guys out, or you don’t. Enough with the arm angles, flying open, pulling off, etc. You know what those are? Various ways of saying the same thing: I can’t get hitters out. That’s it. I honestly believe all these varying excuses and supposed explanations for ineffective pitching have done one thing…propped up pitchers with multiple crutches. Kick one out from under them and they topple. Enough already. Either you’re effective or you’re not. I don’t want to hear about your arm being 3 or 4 inches lower…or the one secret “thing” you discovered to fix your delivery. I don’t care! Fix it. It’s all sugar water anyway. It’s all mental crutching that serves one purpose only…to get your head in a place where you believe you can get it done. You’ve been pitching since you were 6 years old (most)…your body knows how to pitch. Just get your damn head out of the way. Sheesh.

Now, I realize it’s not always that simple…and I know a small adjustment here or there can make a significant difference. But come on…a lot of the time, you’re just not getting it done. Suck it up and pitch.

Okay…that’s all for now…here’s hoping the home stand is a welcome stretch…but with the Brewers, Cubs, and Royals coming to town, it’s going to take more than a little home cookin’ to rejuvenate this Cardinals team.

GO CARDS!!!

Bird Watching: Ups and Downs…

The last 24 hours have been horrible. After waking up to my wife’s “Happy Opening Day, honey!” in bed…everything went downhill from there. I had such high hopes for Opening Day this year. A new 47″ TV, upgraded high-def signal, and my wife’s “Delexe HOTDOG grill/oven” complete with the roller rack on top and bun warmer/toaster oven on bottom…hell, I even sought out the official Hunter brand hot dogs with the St. Louis Cardinals logo on the package. Add a couple six packs of beer and my lucky Cardinals shirt…and we were set.

In retrospect, perhaps I should rethink my “lucky” shirt. After 3 straight losses and an Opening Day rain out, perhaps it’s time to give another shirt a shot…one of the younger, up and coming shirts. One with less experience but more flash. Of course, if I were to do that, I would be forced to get up every morning, walk into my closet, and acknowledge my former lucky shirt…the shirt with more appearances in the lucky position than any other shirt in the history of my closet…look it square in the “eyes”…and say, “No…not you…not today.” No, no…that would be too awkward. I couldn’t do that. Not after all it’s done for me.

Maybe I can donate it to a Rays fan.

Can you tell I’m depressed? I told myself all off-season that I wasn’t going to let the Cardinals do this to me this year. In years past, when the Cardinals lost, I couldn’t even listen to Mike and Mike in the Morning the next day for fear of reliving the loss through Sportscenter. It was horrible. Utter depression…and it would last all day until the Cardinals had a shot to redeem themselves. And God help me if they had an off day!

But, alas, despite all my promises to myself…this year is no different. I am the epitomy of despair. The Cardinals lost…on Opening Day, no less…and I find myself living the following 24 hours in anticipation for the next game, unable to fully engage anything else until that moment. If the Cardinals win, my elation will last the next 24 hours. I’ll be more productive, more aware, and more present in everything. My wife will no longer ask, “Why did I marry this sorry sack of sorrow, again?” But…if we lose…we start all over again.

Okay…enough of that…let’s get to the real meat-and-potatoes of Bird Watching with the first handful of Bird Seeds for the new season. Some are Ups and some are Downs…but both should be taken with a grain of salt. After all…it’s only one game. We’ve got 161 more to go.

BIRD SEEDS

Closer Down – Jason Motte made his first appearance in the closer role….and it finally hit me (with a little help from Al Hrabosky) – the reason I’ve been a bit uneasy with Motte in the ninth inning. I like Motte. Really. And I think he has a bright future in the bullpen of the Cards, but not in the closer role. His stuff is too “straight.” For Motte to be effective, he has to be nearly perfect…hitting his spots, mixing his pitches, etc. Otherwise, big league hitters can time big league fastballs. If he’s not…even by a little bit…hitters have very little problem driving the ball. His fastball simply has no movement. Perez’s fastball, however…movement. It’s nasty (when he can control it). But Motte…the kid’s got gumption and a lot of gas in his arm…but it ain’t enough at this level. On the plus side…despite the nerves and the situation, Motte’s appearance was impressive in that he didn’t walk the side. They had to hit to get it. But remember…he was a catcher. As a catcher, you try, try, and try some more to straighten out your throws to second base with that short-arm motion. Now, as a closer…it’s his achille’s heel.

Luddy Quiets the Skeptics – Ryan Ludwick had an awful Spring. At the end, he partially redeemed himself with a late surge…but not enough to quiet the cynics in the audience. Yesterday, with the score tied on Opening Day, Luddy shoved their cynicism down their throats with a bomb over the wall to give the Cards a short-lived lead. For me, his home run went a long way to answering the many questions surrounding his “repeat” attempt for 2009.

Da’ Dunc is Back – Chris Duncan didn’t hit a home run…but he did hit an aggressive double with authority (off a lefty!) and worked a walk later in the game. I strongly believe Chris Duncan will have a good year in 2009. I must say, I’m really pullin’ for the guy. After the ridicule he endured from fans last year, he’s due.

Whoo Hoo Schu – It had to be difficult for Skip to sit and watch Brendan Ryan start at 2B on Opening Day after putting in so much work this Spring…and just because it was a lefty on the mound. But how satisfying must it have been for Schu to come in late in the game, in a pinch hit situation, and hit a solid line drive up the middle…off a lefty?! Way to go, Schu.

Miller Time in Busch Stadium – That just doesn’t sound right, does it? Maybe that’s why Trever Miller entered in EXACTLY the situation the Cardinals are paying him for…and promptly gave up the tying runs. Miller may work out in the long run, but he did not have a good Spring…and his Opening Day was even worse. I’m concerned.

K-Mac Attack – Kyle McClellan looked good in his first outing. After much concern over his position on the rubber, lack of aggressiveness, and mystery ineffectiveness…K-Mac worked out just fine. Maybe we should have been a bit more concerned over our semi-injured lefty…?

Meet the New Bullpen…Same as the Old Bullpen – This bullpen configuration will not hold up. I believe Motte can get it done for a while, but long term…Chris Perez will be in the ninth inning slot. Where does Motte go? I say he begins to share the “put out fires” spot with Kinney (who was utterly ineffective against the pitcher…shameful). Who goes down? Either an infielder as TLR finally commits to Skip at 2B full time, or Thompson as the team gets through the April schedule and the pitchers actually stretch themselves beyond the 6th inning.

Starting Five – I’m a bit concerned about the conditioning of our starting five in the rotation. It seems Spring Training required so much focus on getting bullpen guys ready to go that the starters didn’t get adequately stretched out. I know Waino was all pumped up and exerting more effort than usual due to Opening Day, but he was flat wore-out after just 5 1/3 innings. This month is not the time to worry about unconditioned starters.

WRAP-UP

That’s all for now…but I’ll leave with a new nickname and an unveiled Twitter chant for 2009:

Nickname:  David “Deep” Freese or The Iceman…

Twitter Chant:  Whooo Hooo Goes the BIG. bad. Schuuuuuu!

Look for more chants and nicknames coming your way from Cards ‘N Stuff during the ‘09 season…

Hey…doom and gloom aside…baseball is BACK Cards fans!

GO CARDS!!!!

Bird Watching: Gut Check…

Last night was just flat out depressing. When I went to bed, the Cardinals had just lost to the Cubs 6 – 2 due to sloppy play that included an unnecessary error by Ludwick in right and a “what the hell happened” error by Kennedy at second. Carp left the game with the trainer, TLR vented his frustration about Carp’s injury by yanking Kennedy from the game (immediately after his error), and the ESPN Bottomline continued to scroll the fact that the Brewers had won in walk-off fashion to pull yet another game ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race. Could the night get any worse?

You know what? It turns out…No. For the first time in a long time, it seems like we caught a break.

When I woke up this morning and sat down to read the inevitable news of Carp’s deactivation for the remainder of the season, I was shocked to hear it may be A-okay after all. Turns out Carp’s triceps were barking and not his shoulder or his elbow. Okay, I know they reported that last night…but seriously…considering the Cardinals’ medical staff, who really bought into that? According to the most recent reports, Carp will go forward with his normal schedule and throw a bullpen session Tuesday.

Whew. All things considered, that’s the best news I’ve heard all season. And it’s consistent. Listen, we’ve continuously heard that coming back from Tommy John Surgery is not an exact science. Pitchers everywhere will tell you any number of nagging aches and pains will pop up during your comeback. Why? I don’t really know, but I would guess it’s because you haven’t pitched competitively for over a year. Your body doesn’t just bounce back from that kind of layoff, even if you have been building arm strength. Your muscles are unused to the workload…not just the surgically repaired areas, but the entire body. Carp could just as easily have developed back pain from lack of pitching as he could have triceps pain. It’s just part of the rebuilding process. Thankfully, Carp was smart enough to call Yadi out as soon as it appeared he could do some damage. Had he not done that, the muscle could have gotten worse and torn something. Yep, I think we caught a break.

And then my depression turned to a tiny glimmer – a spark if you will – of hope for the season. What are we really looking at here? I know, I know…we’re 3 games behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race with less than 2 months to go. But what does that really mean? Well, let’s find out. I’ve taken the liberty of summarizing the rest of the season in my own way. Let’s see how it unfolds.

Teams the Cards HAVE to Play:  Marlins (7 games), Diamond Backs (7 games), Cubs (6 games), and Brewers (2 games).

Teams the Cards GET to Play:  Reds (9 games), Pirates (5 games), Braves (3 games), and Astros (3 games).

Teams the Brewers HAVE to Play:  Cubs (6 games), Dodgers (3 games), Mets (3 games), Phillies (4 games), and Cardinals (2 games).

Teams the Brewers GET to Play:  Reds (6 games), Pirates (9 games), Astros (3 games), Nationals (1 game), and Padres (7 games).

Okay, okay…so…what does all that mean? Well, it means this: The Cardinals play 22 games against winning teams/contenders and 20 games against losing teams. The Brewers play 18 games against winning teams/contenders and 26 games against losing teams. Ugh…doesn’t sound so good from that perspective, does it? But let’s get into it further.

The Cardinals play 20 games at home and 22 games away. Of course, that doesn’t really matter much because the Cards’ home record of 33 – 28 and away record of 32 – 27 are virtually identical. The Brewers play 23 games at home and 21 games away. That may be a factor because the Brew Crew has a 35 – 23 record at home and a 32 – 28 record away. Clearly, the Brewers are a bit better at home (5 more losses and 3 less wins on the road)…meaning they could easily play just .500 ball or a bit worse over the rest of the season (from a home/away perspective). Why is that important? Because it’s one more reason why the Brewers are not likely to run away with the Wild Card. It makes them vulnerable.

Now, let’s get into a few pieces of information that may actually matter.

Days off – The Cards get 7 off while the Brewers get 5 off. This essentially means they play 2 more games than we do. On one hand, that gives the Brewers two more games to pull away from the Cards (effectively equalling 1 game difference if they win both). But, the more likely scenario is a split which is a wash OR dropping both of them (1 game in our favor). However, considering the grind of August/September baseball, I’m betting the biggest impact will be fatigue, especially considering the way the Brewers are riding their co-aces (Sheets and CC). They could easily lose both games AND have a carry-over affect that causes them to drop a couple more from burn-out. Remember our grueling schedule without a day off last year? It’s not quite as bad for the Brewers, but clearly fewer days off affect a team.

Key Series – Both teams have proven they cannot consistently beat the Cubs…but the Cards have come closer to it than the Brew Crew. With both teams playing the Cubs 6 games each, I could easily see the Cards coming out of their small bears stretch 1 game better than the Brewers. But, in all reality, the Cubs are no longer the keystone team to beat for these teams. The Brewers big series? The Mets and Phillies. CC is the Brewers’ big horse, and their X-factor. But he’s a lefty…and the Phillies have been killing left-handed pitching all season. The Mets, on the other hand, are chasing the Brewers and the Cards for the Wild Card…and they possess one of the only pitchers in the league that could actually shut down the Brewers’ lineup…Johan Santana. On the flip side, the Cardinals’ key series has got to be the Florida Marlins. We face them a total of 7 games, and this team is for real. They are also chasing the Brew Crew and Cards for a shot at the Wild Card. We have to put them away early (starts today) and move on. A series win here could drop them far enough back to put them out of our concerns and boost this club mentally. And, guess what…Carp and Waino weren’t scheduled to face this team this week anyway.

Health - This is a simple one. The Cards are trending upward (hopefully) while the Brewers are trending downward. Ryan Braun’s back is acting up (he’ll miss at least one game tonight) and the Brewers are riding CC and Sheets all the way to the promise land. It wouldn’t surprise me if CC’s arm actually fell off while on the mound. And Sheets is hit or miss half the time anyway. The Cardinals on the other hand…assuming Carp really will be okay, they get him back and getting stronger every day. Waino is coming back in a week. And Ankiel will be back this week, if not today. Hell, we even get Barton back this week. Long story short, our pitchers are more rested and our outfield is healthy. And with Phelps, Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, and Stavinoha…we HAVE to have the edge on September call-ups…especially considering all but Rasmus have MLB experience this season.

Bottomline:  Okay, maybe all that is a bit too much to make sense of…so let me bottom line it for you. How can the Cards get to the post season? Well, it doesn’t have to be by heroic effort at all. The simplest method means four things need to happen.

1.  The Cards need to play well against Florida (boost to us and knocks them out).
2.  The Brewers need to drop the 2 extra games they will play.
3.  The Cards need to beat the Brewers in Busch both games this month.
4.  If the above 3 items happen, all we need to do is win 1 more of the remaining games than they do.

All of the above is entirely possible (especially the win for win/loss for loss plus 1 win scenario – seems like we’ve been keeping pace all season).  Making the post season will not take a heroic effort…we just need to calm down and play consistently. We don’t need to win every game, but we do have to settle down and play well. We can do that…but we’ve got to pull together now and start out strong against the Marlins. Drop this series with the Brewers facing sub-par teams this week, and we could easily end the season right here.

Have faith…and GO CARDS!!!

BIRD SEEDS

Was Carp Rushed Back?  With Carp’s injury last night, I’m sure it took all of ten seconds for TLR bashers to jump all over the organization and scream that they had rushed him back and re-injured his arm. But let’s be real here. Yesterday’s start was Carp’s fifth (counting his rehab starts) since coming back. The BEST case scenario regarding his rehab assignment was 4 starts…meaning his first MLB start would have been last night. And his previous 2 MLB starts? He threw far fewer pitches…FAR fewer…than he would have in a minor league rehab assignment in both starts. So don’t start yelling that more rehab starts could have helped avoid the triceps issue. It wasn’t an issue with his elbow or his shoulder…it’s the normal aches and pains expected with a comeback after a layoff of this long. The only way to avoid issues like that would be to shut him down completely and let him start out with a normal Spring Training next year…and I didn’t see anyone advocating that. Carp was handled correctly and with kid gloves – regardless of how this turns out.

Waino as Closer?  Bullshit. Last night’s start by Carp, and the subsequent meltdown of the bullpen in a close, critical game, further underscores the need to bring Adam back as a starter. Look…think of it this way…if Perez can do the job, Waino won’t be needed in the bullpen…right? But the problem we’ve been having is being in actual save situations late in the game so Perez CAN prove himself. Think about that for a moment. Waino wouldn’t have made an impact in ANY of the recent games…but he could have made an impact as a starter going 7 innings. And the only way to get him to the 7 inning strength level is to abort the closer rehab pitch count NOW and get him going for the rotation. It needs to happen people. If Waino is the closer, this team has no shot. If we wait until Carp has another muscle issue and is shut down, Waino won’t have time to rebuild his arm enough to impact this team.

Adam Kennedy’s Mental State  After being yanked by TLR last night, Adam looked devastated. Did TLR make the wrong decision? Did he mentally destroy his best defensive option at second base? Not to mention the way Adam has been hitting recently. It’s no secret Adam and TLR have had their issues over his playing time, but last night did not help. Bottom line – this team is better with a hot hitting Kennedy at second base. Hopefully, TLR’s knee-jerk reaction last night didn’t permanently damage the relationship between the manager and player to the point where it becomes toxic in the club house.

B.S. = B.S.  Anyone notice the initials of BIRD SEEDS are B.S.? I didn’t intend it that way, but it strikes me as appropriate. My rants and ravings regarding Cardinals matters are, more often than not, my own polished form of bullshit. Ah well…seems to be working for me, so why stop now?