Kyle McClellan is “Mr. Controversial…”

A quick post about the Springfield, MO Cardinals Caravan last night…

First, I was a little put off by Colby Rasmus’ demeanor. I don’t know how much of it is his fault, per se, but the kid seems to have been called “the next Cardinals Superstar” one too many times. He seems to have the method down – “yes, sir” and “I’m gonna’ work hard” etc. – but he just seems like he would rather be anywhere else but dealing with fans, etc. I’ll cut the kid some slack - mainly because he is a kid (and he dresses like one, too…I thought he was a 14-year old skater instead of a “step-away-from-the-bigs” professional baseball player) – but I hope he does a bit of maturing over the next couple months. I like him…and he may be ready talent-wise…but he’s not quite mature enough to deal with the scrutiny he’ll face in St. Louis as “the next Cardinals Superstar.”

Second, Jess Todd is a genuinely nice kid…and it shows. I like him, but I don’t think even he was prepared for all the hype surrounding his season last year.

Third, Brian Barden…I really wish this guy would get more of a look than I fear he will get for St. Louis. You can tell the guy feels snubbed…and I think rightly so. I like his approach to the game, his professionalism, and I would bet his maturity level is much more in line with the Big League level than a Brendan Ryan (I really like Ryan…but a comparison is a comparison…). Plus, his versatility (natural third baseman, but played SS in Memphis last year) makes him a hell of an assett.

Finally, Kyle McClellan. I can’t say enough about how impressed I was with this young man. He made the event for me, and was clearly the most comfortable and vocal of all the players at the table. He conversed easily with fans, was eager to offer insight into the St. Louis Cardinals as a team, and appeared entirely comfortable representing the franchise and the team. He laughed, and even asked for the mic a couple times when a general question about the team was asked. But the best part was when he asked for the mic in response to a point posed by Horton about he and Jess Todd’s ability to pitch in either the ‘pen or the rotation…

Kyle McClellan flat out said last night that Dave Duncan told him at the end of last season to prepare to start and to compete for a spot in the starting rotation. Now, I know we all know Dunc is confident in his ability to start…and many of us want to see this happen…but this is the first official word I’ve heard come from the team about it – especially flat-out saying K-Mac is going to be given a chance to compete for a starting job. I loved it!

Later, as I was eagerly and excitedly going through the autograph line, I joked with Ricky Horton and Kyle about it a bit by saying, “You know, Kyle’s little ‘Dunc told me to prepare to start’ comment is going to be all over the fan websites tonight…”

Kyle, in his down-home approachable way, ducked his head and laughed while his head and face turned red. Horton – the wonderfully funny and enjoyable MC of the event – responded by saying, “Well, that’s Kyle…Mr. Controversial.”

All-in-all a good event…but I was shocked to hear that Dunc gave Kyle the “Braden Looper Treatment” by telling him to get ready for the rotation…now THAT’S exciting!

Go Cards!!!

Bird Watching: “Very interesting, indeed…”

UPDATE! It was pointed out that the depth chart available on the Cards’ website is most likely maintained by an MLB.com staffer and not the Cards’ organization (therefore making the “official” status of the chart not so “official). I should point out – of course that is true and known/suspected at the time of my post. The point of this post (below) was simply to discuss interesting points on the depth chart. Much of it (as I mention below) will change during Spring Training. Also, I noticed today that the “Last Updated” date changed to today’s date…yet nothing seems to have changed. In other words, we really have no idea when the depth chart was actually last changed. Of course, all of that being said…I still find the points below very interesting, indeed…

Upon creating my own depth chart (based on my wildly fantastic opinions), I thought to consult the official depth chart available on the official St. Louis Cardinals website (click the link at the end of this post). I was surprised to see a “Last Updated” date of today (January 13th, 2009)…along with some very interesting player names and positions to say the least. I’ve listed a few of those interesting player notes below. Take it all with a grain of salt…Spring Training hasn’t even started and the front office spin-job makes guessing games difficult at best. Enjoy!

• Pete Kozma – The former number 1 draft pick for the Cardinals is listed as the backup shortstop to Kahlil Greene.
• Tyler Greene - Greene reclaimed his “prospect” status last season and spent the offseason in Arizona Fall ball…but he appears to have lost a bit of traction. The young shortstop isn’t even listed on the Cards’ depth chart – an omission that suggests the infielder is Memphis bound.
• Brendan Ryan - I know this was suspected, but this is the first hard evidence I’ve seen thus far. Ryan, who last year struggled and lost a bit of ground, seems to have clawed his way back up the chart. He’s listed as the back-up to Adam Kennedy at second base (and TLR has already gone on record as suggesting he’ll be allowed to compete for the starting job).
• Chris Duncan – The recovering outfielder is no where to be found on the Cardinals’ depth chart. This is not surprising considering his injury status. Don’t read much into this…but it is interesting.
• Brian Barton - We were forced to keep the kid on the roster last year, and many of us assumed he would start the year in Memphis for ‘09, but according to the depth chart, Barton is scheduled to make the team as a backup corner outfielder. This, of course, hinges on Duncan and Rasmus.
• Rick Ankiel - Ank is listed as the starting Left Fielder…NOT the starting Center Fielder. Ludwick is listed as the starter in Right.
• Colby Rasmus - Although Skip Schumaker is listed as the starting Center Fielder, the presence of Rasmus as the second backup behind Luddy suggests the team expects Rasmus to make the squad out of Spring Training. If that happens, Rasmus won’t be a back up for long…if at all. He will quickly become the starting Center Fielder (based on talent and the club’s previous statements about Rasmus starting if he comes up to keep his at-bats totals regular). It looks like (barring trade/injury) the outfield will be Ank, Luddy, and Raz.
• Bryan Anderson - The young left-handed catcher is on the depth chart behind LaRue as the Cardinals’ third catcher…almost assuring the young catcher a debut in St. Louis in ‘09 (even if we have to wait until September). Of course, Anderson could be traded…but his status has recently been downgraded in the trade market due to lesser power at the plate and questions about his defense. This could be the primary reason he is listed as half a step away from the Bigs…to up his perceived trade value.
• Brian Barden - The natural third-baseman turned shortstop in Memphis is listed as Troy Glaus’ backup at the hot corner. Given Kozma’s inexperience and youth at this point, Ryan’s backup second baseman status, and Barden’s ability to play multiple infield positions, we could very well see Barden and Ryan as the backup infielders this season.
• Joe Mather - Joey “Bombs” is nowhere to be seen on the depth chart…despite Pujols having no listed backup at first and early reports on the Post Dispatch about Mather’s possible status as a backup infielder (3rd and 1st base). Interesting…this should play out in Spring Training…
• Chris Perez - Perez is officially listed as the closer on the Cardinals’ depth chart. Jason Motte, on the other hand, is still given the green prospect status. Perez is also listed twice…possibly holding a spot for a lefty…
• Trevor Miller – Not listed. It’s likely Miller will make the team, but as of now, the Cards aren’t handing anyone a spot on the left side of the ‘pen.
• Chris Carpenter - GAH! He’s not listed on the starting pitcher depth chart…but he IS listed in the bullpen. I’m sure this is simply due to his uncertain status – and the fact that he is holding a spot for a second lefty reliever – but I still don’t like it.

All in all…very interesting. Of course, Spring Training will change much of what we see here, but the “official” listings as of whatever updates were posted today are certainly interesting…very interesting, indeed.

Go Cards!

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=stl

For the Mildly Delusional…

Last night’s win against Arizona is the perfect example of what so many Cardinals fans hate about being Cardinals fans. With our win and the Brewers’ loss, the hopeful speculation began anew. “What IF the Cards could pull it out?!” and “Didn’t we nearly blow a 7 or 8 game lead in ‘06?!” While I’m tempted to point out that we still did NOT blow that lead and we did NOT have the pitching the Brewers have this year, I’ll hold my tongue…mostly. Still, after last night’s win, we may not have reason to hope, but we can sure as hell speculate, right? So…with that in mind…wild, hopeless speculation…I’ve re-analyzed the remaining schedule for both the Brewers and the Cardinals below. Fair Warning: Reading this post may result in a completely unjustified sense of hope.

The following analysis breaks down each team the Brewers and Cardinals face as well as a possible win-loss record necessary for the Cardinals to make the playoffs. At the end of each breakdown, I throw in the “likelihood” that the match-up will end in the necessary win-loss scenario. First, the Brewers…

New York Mets (1 game): 0 wins-1 loss  The Brewers play their final game against the Mets today and neither Sheets nor CC are on the mound. They must lose this game. Likelihood: Good.

San Diego Padres (4 games): 3 wins-1 loss  This should be merely a bump in the road for the Brewers. The Padres have shown very little in the way of competition this year, but we’ll give them one win against the Brew Crew simply because Sheets and CC can’t pitch EVERY game in a four game series. Likelihood: Good.

Cincinnati Reds (6 games): 3 wins-3 losses  Oookay…this is the first “hitch” in our hopeful speculation. Expecting the Reds to pull off a series split with the Brewers in September is expecting a lot. However, reasons to be hopeful include 3 games in Cincinnati, Edison Volquez, and the fact that the 3 home games (in Milwaukee) come immediately before the all-important Phillies series for the Brewers. Can you say “trap series?” All in all, the Reds have always been sporadically competative when compared with other perennial bottom-feeders. Likelihood: Poor.

Philadelphia Phillies (4 games): 1 win-3 losses  Who the hell knows what to expect from this series? The Phillies could pummel the Brewers, or they could get pummelled. It all depends on which team shows up. However, reasons to be hopeful include the Phillies success against lefties (i.e. CC), the fact that the games are in Philadelphia, and…well…Ryan Howard.  Still, both lineups are offensively potent, but the Phillies pitching just doesn’t match-up to the Brew Crew’s two-headed monster. Likelihood: Fair.

Chicago Cubs (6 games): 2 wins-4 losses  I can’t believe I’m actually rooting for the Cubs; but with no more match-ups between the Brewers and the Cardinals this season, we have to play vicariously through the small bears. The Cubs have played the Brew Crew extremely tough this season (including an impressive series sweep), but Z’s recent arm troubles have me worried. Regardless, this match-up is key for both the Cards and the Brewers. Likelihood: Fair.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3 games): 2 wins-1 loss  The final match-up is a somewhat promising one. Even though the Pirates no longer boast the likes of Bay and Nady, they still have the potential to “show up” once in a 3 game series. With the other teams the Brewers will be facing, I have a hard time believing they would spend both CC and Sheets in a short series against the Buccos. That means the Pirates will have a somewhat decent chance at least 2 out of the 3 games against the Brewers. Of course, the Pirates’ pitching is nothing to write home about. Likelihood: Fair.

All in all, considering the Brewers season-ending collapse last year…it could happen. But the Brew Crew win-loss record is only one-third of the equation. On to the Cardinals…

Arizona Diamondbacks (5 games): 3 wins-2 losses  The D-backs are a tough team. They hit up and down the lineup, and even though we were lucky enough to avoid their 1-2 combination of Webb and Haren the first time around, we won’t be so lucky in Busch. The Cards need to pull out a win today so they can afford to lose the Webb and Haren games later in the month. Likelihood: Fair.

Florida Marlins (3 games): 3 wins-0 losses  Honestly, I don’t see this one happening. It’s not that we can’t match up to the Marlins (we looked pretty good against them earlier in the season)…but I doubt our ability to sweep a series. A 2 – 1 record is more likely here. When it comes to series sweeps in ‘08, the Cards are cursed. Likelihood: Poor.

Chicago Cubs (6 games): 3 wins-3 losses  Whoa, Nelly. If everything goes well up to this point, this Cubs/Cards series will be HUGE. The good news…we don’t have to win the series. We do, however, need to split the series. The better news…we’ve played the Cubs better than the Brewers this year and Z is hurting while Waino looks strong. Likelihood: Fair.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3 games): 3 wins-0 losses  Again, we face the sweep. It’s appropriate that the season could come down to the Cards’ inability to sweep bad teams…but champions MUST be able to sweep a last-place-worthy team in a 3 game series. We must prove “we are worthy.” But…bottomline…I don’t see us being able to do something we have rarely been able to do all season. Likelihood: Poor.

Cincinnati Reds (6 games): 5 wins-1 loss  Speaking of sweeps…here we go again. While the Cards don’t have to win all 6 games against the Reds, we DO have to win 5 of them…and that means we would have to sweep one of the 3 game sets. Need I repeat myself here? Likelihood: Poor.

So…if the Brew Crew’s record AND the Cardinals’ record follow the above plans, their final season records would look like this: Brewers 91 wins-71 losses. Cardinals 92 wins-70 losses. We would finish ahead of the Milwaukee Punks…um…I mean Brewers. However, finishing ahead of the Brewers does NOT mean a Wild Card playoff birth.

Our four losses over the weekend opened the door for the Philadelphia Phillies to jump right back in it. If the Brewers are one third of the equation and the Cardinals are one third of the equation…that means the final third of the equation is what I like to call the “Phillie Factor.”

With the above analysis giving the Phillies 3 wins against the Brewers, that means the Phillies must lose at least 7 of their remaining games. Ten of those remaining games are against the Nationals and Braves. Not very good odds.

So…what does it all mean? Well…all things considered (Phillies pitching, Brewers tendency to implode in September, and Tony La Russa’s record of finishing strong…last 2 years not withstanding), a pessimistic person would have to give the Cards’ chances a POOR+ (plus)…however, an optimistic person (and mildly delusional) could sleep at night by rating the Cardinals’ chances at FAIR- (minus). Either way…it’s not good.

But…what the hell…GO CARDS!!!