So…it’s Come Down to This…

By this time next week, one of two things will have happened: 1) The NL Wild Card race will be decided (for the most part) OR 2) The NL Wild Card race will be an even bigger cluster f*** than it has already become. (Side note: HOW THE HELL DID THE ASTROS GET BACK IN THIS THING?????)

This week is critical. Over the next 6 or 7 days, the four Wild Card hopefuls (Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies, and Astros) will either make or break their season. Some go head to head, others face a key series or two, but nobody has anything resembling a cake walk. So, before tonight’s Cards/Cubs game kicks off, let’s get down to it…what are we looking at this week and what does it mean?

Milwaukee Brewers - The Brew Crew is leading the NL Wild Card race by a stifling 3 game margin, and before next Tuesday comes along, they’ll have to face their most threatening challenger head-on. After two games against the unpredictable Cincinnati Reds today and tomorrow, the “no rest for the weary” Brewers head to Philadelphia for a knuckle-whitening, four-game series against the slugging Phillies. The Phillies just so happen to be the team currently 3 games behind the Milwaukee Punks, and they have about as potent an offensive lineup as you’re going to find in the National League. By Monday’s end, we could have a new Wild Card leader in the senior league. Either way, 4 games against the Phillies IN Philadelphia is a good thing for Cardinals fans.

Philadelphia Phillies - Two games against Florida, then 4 against the Brewers…this week is huge for the Phillies. For me, they’re becoming more of an insurmountable obstacle than the Brewers. At 4-3 over their last 7 games, they’re not exactly threatening to run away with it, but that’s still better than the Brewers’ 2-6 record over their last 8 and the Cardinals’ 3-3 record over their last 6. And in the end, all you have to do is perform better than the teams behind you, right? Especially with the Phillies remaining schedule after this week (9 of 12 games against the Braves and Nationals). It sure would be great if Florida put a whuppin’ on them and the Reds stuck it to the Brewers – then, I could at least root for a split in the Brewers/Phillies series.

Houston Astros - Somehow…and I still don’t know how…the Astros are back in it and only a half game behind the Cards. Again, how the hell did this happen???? Well, however it happened, it’s bad. The ’stros have a habit of finishing ungodly strong, and they are well on their way to that now. This week throws 3 games against the Pirates and 3 games against the Cubbies at our fellow WC hopefuls, but after this week, their remaining schedule is similar to the Phillies’ (9 of 12 against losing teams). The weekend series against the Cubs is going to be huge.

St. Louis Cardinals – It’s appropriate that the Cards’ chances come down to a 3 game series with the Cubs this week. We don’t need to sweep, but we do need to win this series. According to my overall plan in a previous post (For the Mildly Delusional…), the Cards need a 3-3 split with the Cubs in September…but that needs to start with a 2-1 showing in Busch this week. That allows us to go just 1-2 against the Cubs in Wrigley (where they are dominating) later this month and still be in plan. But perhaps more important than that, a 2-1 series victory over the Cubs this week could be just the shot in the arm this team needs to sprint through the finish line (and it may be the necessary “crutch” their morale needs to survive). Regardless of how the Cubs series turns out, however, the Pirates series over the weekend worries me. A bad showing against the Cubs and we could easily “pout” our way to a 1-2 season-ending defeat at the hands of the buccos. A great showing against the Cubs, and the Pirates series could easily turn into another trap series like we faced in Houston. We need to play this week strong to not only hold our position in the standings but gain ground on both the Phillies and Brewers while they beat each other to death over the weekend.

Who is the ‘X’ factor in this mess? The New York Mets. They currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, but they just received news that their lights-out closer Billy Wagner is out for the season. Couple that with the fact that they finish the season with 7 games against the Cubs and Marlins, and the Mets fan base has got to be feelin’ the foot steps. The Phillies could easily pass the Mets in the standings and throw the “other” New York baseball team into the Wild Card mix. Is that good or bad news for us? Who knows? But I can’t say I feel comfortable trying to chase down a team with Johan Santana and the Mighty Carlos Delgado on their roster.

Who is this month’s Biggest Loser? It’s gotta’ be the Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies are struggling to find pitching replacements for the wounded Harden and Zambrano, AND they have to balance the need to finish somewhat competitively in the regular season with the need to enter the post season with a dominating and refreshed pitching staff. Consider all of that…and THEN check out their remaining September schedule: 6 games against the Cardinals, 3 games against the Astros, 6 games against the Brewers, and 4 games against the Mets – 19 games in 20 days! Good Lord!!! I couldn’t have pieced together a tougher schedule for the Cubs this month if I tried (who are 3-7 in their last 10 games, by the way)!!! What does it all mean? It means the Cubs may very well drop the division and get thrown into the Wild Card mix themselves.

Bottom line:The Cards need to win this series…and because Waino pitched Sunday, they’ll have to do it without him. At this point, though, it doesn’t really matter. Everyone has to step up. Everyone has to pitch well. Everyone has to field well. Everyone has to hit well. This is it. This is the time. There are no other contingency plans. Win in September, or it’s over.

And, who knows…with Joel P’s tendency to lay down in front of the visiting team bus, is it possible that Carpenter could actually be given a start to try and save the season? Doubtful…but you never know.

GO CARDS!!!

A Little Perspective…

I seem to be blogging more than expected this week…but let’s run with it…

I know, I know…the ninth inning loss was hard to take…but let’s be honest with ourselves – we’ve been there before. After so many of those earlier in the season, I wasn’t shaken at all with the loss on Wed. (well, okay – maybe a bit). But was it the fact that I’ve been forced to endure so many late inning collapses this season that I’ve developed calluses over my heart (okay, that was dramatic…)? I don’t think so…I don’t think it was cynicism that kept my spirits up…I think it was perspective.

If you’ve read the post immediately before this one (For the Mildly Delusional…), then you’re familiar with the playoff birth plan I’ve laid out for the Brewers and Cards. It’s still early (only 2 or 3 days removed), but let’s see how we’re doing so far.

Brewers lose game against Mets – CHECK. Brewers lose one game against Padres – CHECK. Phillies drop “should win” game(s) against Nationals – CHECK (so far…). Cardinals go 3-2 against the Diamondbacks – TO BE DETERMINED.

Ah…there we go. The loss against the D-Backs on Wed. – as disappointing as that loss was - still fits into “the plan.” Sure, it wasn’t ideal…especially considering it means one of our three wins must now come against either Webb or Haren…but it did NOT derail the plan. And the Brewers and Phillies? Couldn’t have asked for a better outcome. The Phillies lose their FIRST game against the Nationals since the publication of my “plan,” and the Brewers lose not only the Mets game but the first against the Padres as well! The Brewers could win every remaining game against the Padres and STILL be “in plan.” And guess what…they haven’t even faced Peavy yet!

Tonight, the Padres face CC. Okay, we’ll give the Brewers that game…especially because the Padres won’t have to waste their ace in a losing cause. But remember this…every additional game the Brewers lose outside of the plan only gives the Cardinals more breathing room. Drop the game against Peavy this week and suddenly the Cardinals don’t have to pull off the near impossible sweep of the Marlins. Of course, there’s still the Phillies to contend with…but the Phillie Factor is just going to have to handle itself. That team is so unpredictable that it’s pointless to try and predict what they will do. All we can do is focus on winning our games and chasing down the current top dog – the Brewers.

So…let’s keep this in perspective, folks…a loss here and there…even an unaccounted for loss…is not a season killer. The way this team makes the playoffs is by focusing on the big picture – our September series record against the remaining teams on our schedule. We don’t need to win every game, but we have to show the resiliency this team has become known for and continue to pick ourselves up after each loss. The plan isn’t ideal…but it CAN work.

Having said all that…I’ll be shocked if this team even comes close to sniffing a Wild Card birth…but stranger things have happened.

GO CARDS!!!

For the Mildly Delusional…

Last night’s win against Arizona is the perfect example of what so many Cardinals fans hate about being Cardinals fans. With our win and the Brewers’ loss, the hopeful speculation began anew. “What IF the Cards could pull it out?!” and “Didn’t we nearly blow a 7 or 8 game lead in ‘06?!” While I’m tempted to point out that we still did NOT blow that lead and we did NOT have the pitching the Brewers have this year, I’ll hold my tongue…mostly. Still, after last night’s win, we may not have reason to hope, but we can sure as hell speculate, right? So…with that in mind…wild, hopeless speculation…I’ve re-analyzed the remaining schedule for both the Brewers and the Cardinals below. Fair Warning: Reading this post may result in a completely unjustified sense of hope.

The following analysis breaks down each team the Brewers and Cardinals face as well as a possible win-loss record necessary for the Cardinals to make the playoffs. At the end of each breakdown, I throw in the “likelihood” that the match-up will end in the necessary win-loss scenario. First, the Brewers…

New York Mets (1 game): 0 wins-1 loss  The Brewers play their final game against the Mets today and neither Sheets nor CC are on the mound. They must lose this game. Likelihood: Good.

San Diego Padres (4 games): 3 wins-1 loss  This should be merely a bump in the road for the Brewers. The Padres have shown very little in the way of competition this year, but we’ll give them one win against the Brew Crew simply because Sheets and CC can’t pitch EVERY game in a four game series. Likelihood: Good.

Cincinnati Reds (6 games): 3 wins-3 losses  Oookay…this is the first “hitch” in our hopeful speculation. Expecting the Reds to pull off a series split with the Brewers in September is expecting a lot. However, reasons to be hopeful include 3 games in Cincinnati, Edison Volquez, and the fact that the 3 home games (in Milwaukee) come immediately before the all-important Phillies series for the Brewers. Can you say “trap series?” All in all, the Reds have always been sporadically competative when compared with other perennial bottom-feeders. Likelihood: Poor.

Philadelphia Phillies (4 games): 1 win-3 losses  Who the hell knows what to expect from this series? The Phillies could pummel the Brewers, or they could get pummelled. It all depends on which team shows up. However, reasons to be hopeful include the Phillies success against lefties (i.e. CC), the fact that the games are in Philadelphia, and…well…Ryan Howard.  Still, both lineups are offensively potent, but the Phillies pitching just doesn’t match-up to the Brew Crew’s two-headed monster. Likelihood: Fair.

Chicago Cubs (6 games): 2 wins-4 losses  I can’t believe I’m actually rooting for the Cubs; but with no more match-ups between the Brewers and the Cardinals this season, we have to play vicariously through the small bears. The Cubs have played the Brew Crew extremely tough this season (including an impressive series sweep), but Z’s recent arm troubles have me worried. Regardless, this match-up is key for both the Cards and the Brewers. Likelihood: Fair.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3 games): 2 wins-1 loss  The final match-up is a somewhat promising one. Even though the Pirates no longer boast the likes of Bay and Nady, they still have the potential to “show up” once in a 3 game series. With the other teams the Brewers will be facing, I have a hard time believing they would spend both CC and Sheets in a short series against the Buccos. That means the Pirates will have a somewhat decent chance at least 2 out of the 3 games against the Brewers. Of course, the Pirates’ pitching is nothing to write home about. Likelihood: Fair.

All in all, considering the Brewers season-ending collapse last year…it could happen. But the Brew Crew win-loss record is only one-third of the equation. On to the Cardinals…

Arizona Diamondbacks (5 games): 3 wins-2 losses  The D-backs are a tough team. They hit up and down the lineup, and even though we were lucky enough to avoid their 1-2 combination of Webb and Haren the first time around, we won’t be so lucky in Busch. The Cards need to pull out a win today so they can afford to lose the Webb and Haren games later in the month. Likelihood: Fair.

Florida Marlins (3 games): 3 wins-0 losses  Honestly, I don’t see this one happening. It’s not that we can’t match up to the Marlins (we looked pretty good against them earlier in the season)…but I doubt our ability to sweep a series. A 2 – 1 record is more likely here. When it comes to series sweeps in ‘08, the Cards are cursed. Likelihood: Poor.

Chicago Cubs (6 games): 3 wins-3 losses  Whoa, Nelly. If everything goes well up to this point, this Cubs/Cards series will be HUGE. The good news…we don’t have to win the series. We do, however, need to split the series. The better news…we’ve played the Cubs better than the Brewers this year and Z is hurting while Waino looks strong. Likelihood: Fair.

Pittsburgh Pirates (3 games): 3 wins-0 losses  Again, we face the sweep. It’s appropriate that the season could come down to the Cards’ inability to sweep bad teams…but champions MUST be able to sweep a last-place-worthy team in a 3 game series. We must prove “we are worthy.” But…bottomline…I don’t see us being able to do something we have rarely been able to do all season. Likelihood: Poor.

Cincinnati Reds (6 games): 5 wins-1 loss  Speaking of sweeps…here we go again. While the Cards don’t have to win all 6 games against the Reds, we DO have to win 5 of them…and that means we would have to sweep one of the 3 game sets. Need I repeat myself here? Likelihood: Poor.

So…if the Brew Crew’s record AND the Cardinals’ record follow the above plans, their final season records would look like this: Brewers 91 wins-71 losses. Cardinals 92 wins-70 losses. We would finish ahead of the Milwaukee Punks…um…I mean Brewers. However, finishing ahead of the Brewers does NOT mean a Wild Card playoff birth.

Our four losses over the weekend opened the door for the Philadelphia Phillies to jump right back in it. If the Brewers are one third of the equation and the Cardinals are one third of the equation…that means the final third of the equation is what I like to call the “Phillie Factor.”

With the above analysis giving the Phillies 3 wins against the Brewers, that means the Phillies must lose at least 7 of their remaining games. Ten of those remaining games are against the Nationals and Braves. Not very good odds.

So…what does it all mean? Well…all things considered (Phillies pitching, Brewers tendency to implode in September, and Tony La Russa’s record of finishing strong…last 2 years not withstanding), a pessimistic person would have to give the Cards’ chances a POOR+ (plus)…however, an optimistic person (and mildly delusional) could sleep at night by rating the Cardinals’ chances at FAIR- (minus). Either way…it’s not good.

But…what the hell…GO CARDS!!!